Garrett Nussmeier Jumps Arch Manning in 2026 NFL Draft Odds

Brian Giuffra | Aug 7, 2025

Texas quarterback Arch Manning is no longer the betting favorite to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Texas quarterback Arch Manning might have been the No. 1 overall pick if he came out of college last year, so it was no surprise to see him atop the betting odds to go first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft when the odds were initially released. 

Much has changed since then. 

Following comments from his grandfather, Archie Manning, stating Arch Manning will not enter the 2026 NFL Draft, the Texas quarterback’s odds to be drafted first overall next year have plummeted. He was originally +200 to go first overall, but is now +850 on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who opened with +450 odds, is now the betting favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2026 Draft with +340 odds at FanDuel. 

Penn State QB Drew Allard, originally +225 to go first overall, just behind Manning, is now +460 on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers are tied for the second-shortest odds to go first at +380 at FanDuel. 

Meanwhile, Manning’s odds to win the Heisman remain unchanged. He’s still the betting favorite at +700 on FanDuel, the same odds he opened with. Klubnik and Nussmeier are second at +900. 

Texas is the top-ranked team in the coaches poll heading into this season and has the shortest odds to win the National Championship at +550 on FanDuel. If Manning leads the Longhorns to a national title, he’ll likely also win the Heisman and would be the presumptive top pick if he entered the draft. 

If you’ve followed the Manning family’s history, however, you’d understand why the chances of him leaving school early are low. His two Super-Bowl-winning QB uncles, Peyton and Eli, earned their degrees at college and started at least two years each. 

This is Arch’s first year as a full-time starter and his junior year of college. If he were following the same path as his uncles, he would stay another year after this season to complete his degree and develop more as a starter. 

When asked by Texas Monthly about his grandson entering the 2026 draft, Archie Manning said, "Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas."

Things can change, of course. If a team Manning and his family like has the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 Draft, that might not be an opportunity they can pass up. However, this does give him flexibility if a team he doesn’t want to play for has the top pick. 

Either way, betting on this market now seems foolish. There are still too many variables, and with payouts relatively low ($10 bet on +380 profits $38), the risk isn’t worth the reward in this scribe's opinion. 

It is a fun market to observe, however, as it’s instructive on what to expect next year. We’ll keep an eye out throughout the offseason on how this market evolves. 

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