Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 17

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cleveland Guardians-Detroit Tigers matchup on Sept. 17.

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Guardians have won nine of their last 10 games and are just 2.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the AL wild card.

Cleveland has also cut into the deficit in the AL Central division, sitting just five games back of the Detroit Tigers ahead of Game 2 of this three-game set on Wednesday night.

Detroit is favored in the odds at the best betting sites, but it has won just nine of Jack Flaherty’s 29 starts this season. Can the veteran right-hander turn things around tonight?

He will take on Guardians righty Gavin Williams (3.16 ERA), who has pitched a lot better since the All-Star break despite some shaky advanced numbers.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this AL Central clash on Wednesday. 

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-176)
• Tigers -1.5 (+144)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +123
• Tigers: -150

Total

• 8 (Over -112/Under -108)

Guardians vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Gavin Williams (10-5, 3.16 ERA)
• Detroit: Jack Flaherty (813, 4.69 ERA)

Guardians vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 17
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1, FDSDET, CLEG
• Guardians record: 79-71
• Tigers record: 85-66

Guardians vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

• Gavin Williams 3+ Walks Allowed (+111)

Williams ranks in just the sixth percentile in walk percentage in the 2025 season, and he’s walked at least three batters in back-to-back starts heading into this outing with Detroit.

The Tigers (16th in MLB in walks drawn) were able to work three free passes in their lone game against Williams this season. 

The righty has pitched well since the All-Star break, but he’s still allowed three or more walks in 15 of his 29 outings this season. At +111, this prop is a great bet on Wednesday. 

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Wednesday, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB best column – Walk-Off Wagers – why this is my upset pick of the night: 

The Cleveland Guardians are surging right now in the AL Central, winning five games in a row and nine of their last 10 to pull within 5.5 games of the Detroit Tigers for the division lead. On top of that, Cleveland is just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot in the AL.

On Wednesday, the Guardians have Gavin Williams (3.16 ERA) on the mound against Detroit veteran Jack Flaherty (4.69 ERA).

If there’s one concerning stat to look at in this matchup, it’s the Tigers’ record with Flaherty on the mound in 2025. This season, Detroit is just 9-20 with the righty on the bump, and Flaherty has a 5.14 ERA in eight starts since Aug. 1. 

Williams hasn’t been lights out in 2025 – he ranks in the 31st percentile in expected ERA – but his actual numbers haven’t caught up to that so far. Williams has a 2.28 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break, and I’m starting to buy that he may avoid any regression to what his advanced numbers say in 2025. 

Overall, the Guardians are 15-14 in Williams’ outings, including a 7-3 mark over his last 10 starts.

With Cleveland on a huge winning streak and back in the playoff mix, I think it’s worth a bet as an underdog with this pitching matchup on Wednesday. 

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+123 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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