Houston Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark

Brian Giuffra | Mar 26, 2025

Wyndham Clark (left), Scottie Scheffler (center) and Rory McIlroy are among the betting picks for the Houston Open. / Wyndham Clark: David Cannon/Getty ImagesScottie Scheffler: Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesRory McIlroy: Brennan Asplen/Getty ImagesBackground: Logan Riely/Getty Images

The SI Golf betting panel is getting hot at the perfect time. 

Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner hit his first-round leader pick for the second week in a row with Stephen Jaeger (+5000) earning him part of a five-way chop at Valspar. FanSided senior editor Cody Williams picked Viktor Hovland Top 20 (+225) as his top prop at Valspar and, if you follow him on Twitter, SI Betting Insider Matt Vincenzi hit Hovland as the outright winner at +8000. No, he didn’t pick it on the panel, but he did bet it personally and posted about it on social, so he’s worth a follow as he has his finger on the pulse of golf betting as well as anyone. 

That brings us to the Houston Open, which is a great warmup for the Masters, not only for the players but also for the SI Golf betting panel as well. The panel is comprised of Kirschner, Vincenzi, Williams, SI Golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

This week we have a nice mix of favorites and a few surprise picks mixed in. Between two FRL hits and an outright winner pick, Kirschner is up +124.45 units on the season so far. MacMillan has been hot with his props (5-2, +8.54 units), but is still looking for his first outright and is -12.46 units overall. Giuffra (-18.14 units), Vincenzi (-20 units), Williams (-21.85 units) and Schwarb (-23.49 units) follow. 

Here are our picks for the Houston Open with explanations for each pick below. 

Betting Panel / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick

Iain MacMillan: Rory McIlroy (+700, DraftKings)

This week is a rare situation where we have the top two golfers in the world competing and then a significant gap in the odds until the rest of the field. I think you’d be doing yourself a disservice to not bet on McIlroy at 7-1. He has been playing much better golfer than Scheffler this season but is still listed at twice the odds. This could be the year of Rory.

Matt Vincenzi: Wyndham Clark (+4000, DraftKings)

Over his last 36 rounds, Clark ranks sixth in the field in strokes-gained total at Tom Doak designs. His combination of length off the tee and ability to make putts is the skill set combination that has gone really well at Memorial Park over the first four editions of the tournament. 

John Schwarb: Scottie Scheffler (+375, Bet365)

Can’t resist the chalk here, as much as I want to. But I also can’t resist how juicy it would be for the world No. 1 to reestablish himself ahead of Rory McIlroy, who is the defacto No. 1 with his two wins this year, including the recent Players, just before the Masters. Scheffler has a pair of T2s in Houston so this isn’t just a prep week. This is a spot he knows he can win and I say he does it to set up a monster showdown at Augusta. 

Brian Kirschner: Davis Thompson (+3500, FanDuel)

The winner of the John Deere Classic over the summer, I believe Davis certainly has the talent to be a multiple-time PGA Tour winner. Above average in distance and a great chipper and putter, he possesses the skillset I am looking for at this course. Coming off a 12th place finish at The Players, where he gained seven strokes ball striking, I like the form he is coming into this event with. Placing 21st in his last appearance here, he put this on his schedule because he knows it's a spot he can win.  

Cody Williams: Min Woo Lee (+3500, FanDuel)

While we’ve never seen Min Woo Lee at Memorial Park, it’s the exact type of difficult, long golf course that suits him well. He’s a basher off the tee but also a wizard with the short game, ranking Top 10 in SG: Around-the-Green and in Scrambling over the last 24 rounds. Though his overall approach numbers leave a bit to be desired, he gained at The Players, Cognizant and at Pebble Beach this year on approach, which should translate to Houston. 

Brian Giuffra: Scottie Scheffler (+375, Bet365) 

I promised myself to only bet on Scheffler once before the Masters and I already used that bullet at the Arnold Palmer, where he finished T11. Still, I can’t shake the feeling he’s going to win before the Masters and this is his last chance. Scheffler has finished runner-up in this tournament two of the last three years and surely wants to win one in his home state. Bet365 has the best number I found for Scheffler this week, with most other books offering him at +350, so when I saw it I jumped on it and didn’t look back. Call me square all you want. I’ll keep believing in the best player in the world at a course that suits his game.  

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Mac Meissner (+15000, FanDuel)

In a field that’s not very deep after Scheffler and McIlroy, I’m going to take a shot on a 150-1 longshot in Mac Meissner. There are some things for him that are trending in the right direction, including finishing T28 at last week’s Valspar Championship where he gained +1.93 true strokes per round with his approach play. If he can keep that up while continuing to chip well, he could be in the mix on the weekend.

Matt Vincenzi: Emiliano Grillo (+30000, DraftKings)

I’ve been quietly monitoring Emiliano Grillo round by round over the past few weeks, and I really like what I’m seeing. The results for Grillo have been downright awful, but he has put together some masterful rounds with his irons, which is always a tell for the Argentine. He gained 4.08 strokes on approach in the first round of the Players Championship, which led the field. In Round 2, he gained 1.90. He had a really bad round on Saturday, but that shouldn’t take away from the clear progress he made to start the week. He got in the mix last week at the Valspar and is rounding into form. 

John Schwarb: Sam Ryder (+12000, FanDuel)

The Sunshine State native heated up at the end of the Florida Swing, finishing T14 at the Players and T16 at the Valspar. He’s 47th in strokes-gained approach and second on Tour in strokes-gained putting, so if he can keep the driver in play (which is a question, hence the price) he might be able to make some noise in Houston, where he made the cut last year for the first time in three tries.

Brian Kirschner: Steven Fisk (+15000, DraftKings) 

Although early in his PGA Tour career, I believe that Fisk has some potential to be a mid-range betting option from week to week. Coming off a fourth-place finish a the Puerto Rico Open and a 17th in Mexico, I believe that he is the best on courses that are open OTT and let golfers hit a lot of drivers. Fisk finished 28th last week gaining four strokes on approach and third ARG and putting. I think this is a much better fit so I can see him towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. 

Cody Williams: Joel Dahmen (+12500, BetMGM)

Over the last 24 rounds, Dahmen has been striking the hell out of the ball, ranking 10th in SG: Approach over that span in this field. While the SG: Around-the-Green numbers aren’t pretty, the fact that he’s still 31st in Scrambling over that same span does speak to him finding his way around. And while he missed the cut here last year, the fact that Dahmen finished T9 and T5 in 2022 and 2021 at Memorial Park speaks to how this place can suit him, making it well worth a dart throw at 125-1.

Brian Giuffra: Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000, FanDuel) 

Hojgaard has missed the cut the last two weeks, which is the only reason I can imagine getting him at this price. His game profiles perfectly for this course – long driver, strong putter, and 15th in approach on tour. Ahead of Augusta, where he finished in the Top 20 last year, I see Hojgaard finding his game and competing this week. 

First-Round Lead 

Iain MacMillan: Alex Smalley (+6000, FanDuel)

Let’s not forget Alex Smalley is seventh on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained. He may not have the mental fortitude to win the whole thing, but his 2025 metrics including his 33rd ranking in Round 1 scoring average make him an intriguing bet to be the first-round leader at 60-1.

Matt Vincenzi: Max Greyserman (+7000, DraftKings)

Greyserman finished T7 at Memorial Park last year and gained about four strokes putting. Over the past few seasons, he’s been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. He ranks third in strokes-gained putting on fast Bermudagrass greens. 

John Schwarb: Stephan Jaeger (+6000, DraftKings)

Yes, I’m gonna take a sip of Jaegermeister one week after he cashed a first-round leader ticket for Kirschner. What could go wrong? But the German has had a few fast starts this year and I’ll ride with that plus his defending-champ mojo at Memorial Park. 

Brian Kirschner: Taylor Pendrith (+5000, DraftKings)

Let’s try and go for three in a row in this market. Again, I am looking for bombers and elite putters in this event, and “Pendy” certainly possesses both of those traits. He's third in SG: OTT in this field and coming off a top 40 at the Players where he gained 6.2 strokes putting. Although he had some bad finishes, back-to-back top 10s early in the season show he is capable of popping. I can see “Pendy” riding a hot putter to a FRL this week. 

Cody Williams: Keith Mitchell (+6600, FanDuel)

I’ve been on Keith Mitchell enough times outright to know it’s not going to keep up over four rounds. To be a first-round leader, though? Mitchell ranks sixth on the PGA Tour this season in first-round scoring average. He now comes to Memorial Park, which should suit his length off of the tee. The fact that he gained more than 4.0 strokes on approach last week (and with the putter) is a good sign. Again, I don’t think it lasts but a bullet at a FRL feels worth it. 

Brian Giuffra: Seamus Power (+8000, FanDuel) 

Power got off to a slow start this year, but found his game at last week’s Valspar, where he finished T8 thanks to a Sunday 66. While I don’t think he has the game to win an event like this, he certainly can go low in one round. He’s an accurate, long driver and is solid on proximity to the hole on long approaches. Putting will be the key to success here, as is typically the case for a one-round sample. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Danny Willett Top Englishman (+1000, FanDuel)

Danny Willett hasn’t had many impressive finishes this season outside of a T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open, but his game has been impressive besides his approach play. For example, he leads the PGA Tour in both strokes gained: around the green and scrambling, both of which are key factors at this week’s event. If he can find any level of momentum with his irons, taking him to win a relatively weak field of English golfers is going to be a great bet at 10-1.

Matt Vincenzi: Jason Day Top 10 (+300)

In Day’s first start at Memorial Park, he finished in a tie for seventh. It’s been up and down since, but he also finished T16 in 2023. At an event that should be difficult to score, I like Day’s chances to contend. 

John Schwarb: Jake Knapp Top 20 (+300, DraftKings)

After a month of strong play, including a T6 at the Cognizant (with his first-round 59) and T12 at the Players, Knapp finally hit the wall with a missed cut at the Valspar. But I like to look at guys who are coming off a reset like that, figuring the weekend off (though unwanted) can help recharge the batteries. Knapp is still one of the better players in this field so I’ll ride him to have another solid week.

Brian Kirschner: Matti Schmid Top 40 (+150, Bet365) 

A great OTT player having a solid season with an 18th, 6th and 28th finish in three out of his last four starts. Gaining in all four major categories last week at the Valspar, he is well-balanced and I believe he can spike with the putter any week. This was also a spot where he finished top 21st last year. All signs point to a top 40 finish from Matti this week.

Cody Williams: Nick Taylor Top Canadian (+350, DraftKings)

The course history for Nick Taylor in Houston is a bit worrisome, especially because he’s 132nd in driving distance over the last 24 rounds, which might indicate his disadvantage off the tee is too much. At the same time, he’s fifth in SG: Approach over that span and fifth in Bogey Avoidance as well. He’s got some stiff competition with the heavy-hitting Taylor Pendrith and then Mackenzie Hughes with great course history here, but I’m willing to go after Taylor with how his ball striking is currently popping. 

Brian Giuffra: Kurt Kitayama Top 20 (+280, Bet365) 

Kitayama fills a lot of the buckets I look at for projected success – long driver, quality long iron player, three-putt avoidance, and approach proximity to the hole. My biggest concern with him is he struggled in the wind last week at Valspar and it’s supposed to be windy this week in Houston. But Kitayama’s game is suited for success at Memorial Park. I’m willing to take a swing on him contending this week. 

Final Score Prediction 

• Iain MacMillan: -14
• Matt Vincenzi:  -13
• John Schwarb: -15
• Brian Kirschner:  -13
• Cody Williams: -13
• Brian Giuffra: -11

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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