The Valspar Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka and Tom Kim

SI Golf staff | Mar 19, 2025

Tom Kim (left), Jordan Spieth (center) and Sepp Straka (right) are among the picks to win the Valspar. / Tom Kim: Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesJordan Spieth: Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty ImagesSepp Straka: David Cannon/Getty Images

We had our first first-round lead winner last week and it came, once again, from Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, who hit J.J. Spaun on a +8000 ticket with a three-way chop at The Players. That’s Kirschner’s second correct pick this year following Joe Highsmith (+11000) at the Cognizant. We’re all chasing Kirschner, who is now up over 118 units on the year. 

This week, the SI Golf Betting panel turns its attention to the Valspar Championship at the Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course. This is the last stop of the Florida swing and the weather is expected to play a big role in the outcome, with the AM-PM tee time having an advantage, on paper, over the PM-AM group, which is expected to see heavier winds. 

The panel is comprised of Kirschner, SI Golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

On the year, MacMillan is down 11.86 units but is 4-2 on his prop picks. Vincenzi is down 16 units and is 2-4 on props. Giuffra is down 17 units and is 3-2 on props. Schwarb is down 19 units, but hit his prop last week and is now 2-4 on the year. Williams is down 21 units and is 1-5 on props. 

Besides the weather, the Copperhead Course favors accurate drivers who can move the ball both ways. There will be some longer approach shots this week and some long Par 3s as well. 

Despite coming a week after The Players, there are plenty of big names in the field. Our panel picked a few of them, though not the ones you might think. 

Here are our picks with breakdowns of them below the graphic.  

Valspar picks. / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick

Iain MacMillan: Sepp Straka (+1600, FanDuel)

Sepp Straka continues to be underrated in the betting market. He has finished 15th in six of his last seven starts, including a win at The American Express. The Copperhead course demands accuracy and Straka is one of the most accurate golfers on Tour, ranking 11th in driving accuracy and fifth in greens in regulation.

Matt Vincenzi: Jordan Spieth (+6000, FanDuel)

After having offseason surgery that fixed a lingering wrist issue, Spieth has now made five starts in 2025. There have been some ups and downs over that time, but he's shown flashes of what made him a really good player in 2021-22. The most encouraging part of Spieth’s game has been the way he’s hitting the driver. He’s gained strokes off the tee in four consecutive starts.

John Schwarb: Corey Conners (+3500, FanDuel)

Pretty surprised to see this number on the Canadian (always shop around; I saw him at 18-1 elsewhere), coming off a T6 at The Players and solo third at Bay Hill. He’s 28th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, one of the first metrics for Copperhead, and though he hasn’t played here since 2021 (finishing T21) he’s having too good of a Florida Swing to not be worth a play at that number.

Brian Kirschner: Tom Kim (+2200, DrafKings)

I am going to go ahead and take a proven winner on the PGA Tour this week at the Valspar. Kim is off a 42nd-place finish at the Players, however, he led the field in approach gaining nine shots to the field. I trust Tom to figure out his putter this week. 

Cody Williams: Sepp Straka (+1600, FanDuel)

I couldn’t possibly care less that Straka has a missed cut and T46 to his credit at the Copperhead Course. Over the last 24 rounds, Straka is sixth in this field in SG: Approach, Top 10 in both Par 3 and Par 5 strokes gained, and 17th in Good Drive Percentage. He checks the boxes across the board for what it takes to win at Innisbrook. After hunting around the top of the leaderboard for months now, this is the perfect time to add another win to his season, especially on the right side of the tee times that shifted odds dramatically.

Brian Giuffra: Will Zalatoris (+4500, FanDuel) 

One of the big things I was looking for when picking my outright this week was driving accuracy and approach accuracy from longer distances, as the Copperhead Course calls for both. Willy Z passes both of those tests. His putting remains his biggest downside, but I saw enough out of him at The Players to believe a breakthrough is on the horizon. At +4500, I’ll bet it’s now. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Lucas Glover (+7000, FanDuel)

Glover is one of the most accurate golfers on the PGA Tour, which is why, despite his age, he finished 11th at this event last season and is fresh off a T3 performance at The Players Championship. He’s fourth in driving accuracy and 28th in strokes-gained approach in 2025.

Matt Vincenzi: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000, DraftKings)

Bezuidenhout has quietly been playing some pretty solid golf this season. He finished T4 at the WM Phoenix Open and 19th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and I believe he’s much better suited to contend at a course like Copperhead.

John Schwarb: Danny Walker (+12000, FanDuel)

The story of the Players, non-Rory Division, was rookie Danny Walker getting the call as an alternate on Thursday morning and riding that last-minute tee time to a T6. One school of thought is to avoid a guy coming off that kind of high. I go the other way and see a guy who now knows he belongs and isn’t sweating money or points anymore. So why not make another run in Palm Harbor?

Brian Kirschner: Steven Fisk (+22000, FanDuel)

Fisk is certainly a talent on the PGA Tour and I am strictly buying the number and the fact that he’s in the “good wave” this week. Fisk had a great chance to win in PR two weeks ago, but short misses hurt him down the stretch. He was Top 5 in GIR % at that event and should be more comfortable on these Bermuda greens. 

Cody Williams: Alex Smalley (+7000, FanDuel)

While he faded on the weekend at The Players, I’m still a big fan of where Smalley’s game currently resides. He’s finished T21 or better in five of his six last starts and had a T27 at Innisbrook in 2023. Beyond that, he’s 18th in the field in driving accuracy with the most distance of anyone in the Top 20 over his last 36 rounds. He’s also sitting 30th in Greens in Regulation over that span. Throw in that he’s one of the best scramblers and Par 3 players in the field, I like the number for him this week. 

Brian Giuffra: Jake Knapp (+9000, FanDuel) 

Knapp can be a bit erratic off the tee, which isn’t beneficial on this tight course, but his approach game from distance is elite and he’s on a bit of a heater right now with a T6 at Cognizant and T12 at The Players the previous two weeks. He knows how to play in the wind and he’s been solid scrambling this season. I also feel he’s being undervalued here, which makes me like this number even more.  

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Corey Conners (+5000, FanDuel)

I’m going to bet on Conners to carry his momentum over from The Players Championship into the Valspar Championship. I don’t trust him to win, but he’s very live to be the first-round leader. He’s 45th in Round 1 scoring average and he’s been one of the most accurate golfers on the PGA Tour.

Matt Vincenzi: Nicolai Hojgaard (+8000, DraftKings)

I think Nicolai Hojgaard is going a bit under the radar this week with the way he’s been striking the ball. He ranks 13th in the field in strokes-gained approach and had a preferable AM tee time. 

John Schwarb: Charley Hoffman (+20000, FanDuel)

This isn’t the first time I’ve taken a shot on Hoffman as a first-rounder and probably not the last. The 48-year-old isn’t likely to win again until he gets on the Champions Tour, but he’s still dangerous for one round. He opened with 65 at the Cognizant and Amex this year. While his 17 prior trips to Innisbrook aren’t covered in glory (zero top-10s, eight MCs), well, at this price I’m gonna dive in again on a personal favorite.

Brian Kirschner: Steven Jaeger (+5000, DraftKings)

I told you I was a fan of this market last week and we cashed with JJ Spaun. Let’s see if we can go back to back. Jaeger is in the “good wave,” which is going to be vital for this market this week. The German has been playing some great golf recently: T3 at Sony, T6 in Mexico and a solid 20th-place finish at The Players. I think he can get out to a hot start this week. 

Cody Williams: Tom Kim (+3500, DraftKings)

Largely just riding a gut feeling here, but Kim is coming off what must’ve been a frustrating week at The Players where he gained 9.89 strokes on approach, but lost 4.95 strokes with the putter. That approach play stands out, though, as you have to go back to The Open Championship last July for the last time he lost strokes on approach. More importantly, though, he gained strokes putting in the first round of The Players before collapsing, so maybe he can come out hot in the right weather wave and make some noise. 

Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry (+7500, FanDuel) 

Everyone’s freaking out about how much heavier the winds will blow in the afternoon when Lowry tees off. Is there anyone you trust more, outside Rory, playing in windy conditions than Lowry right now? He’s excellent controlling trajectory and, at +7500 odds, I can’t help but take a little nibble on one of the best tee-to-green players on tour this year.  

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson Top Danish (+240, FanDuel)

Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson comes into this event fresh off back-to-back runner-up finishes, one at the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters and one at the Puerto Rico Open. This will be his second career PGA Tour start and I’m going to try to invest in him before the market realizes just how good he is. This bet is also a way we can fade the Hojgaard twins, whose games have been trending in the wrong direction.

Matt Vincenzi: Charley Hoffman Top 20 (+400, DraftKings)

Hoffman has been playing well, and despite being a few years older than his fellow competitors, the 48-year-old is keeping up with the younger generation in both driving distance and accuracy. His irons are as good as ever as he's gained strokes on approach in all seven of his starts this season.

John Schwarb: Jordan Spieth Top 10 (+550, FanDuel)

The Players was another yo-yo for Spieth and his fans, from a wild opening round where he had two eagles and three birdies yet shot 70 to a final-round 78 that left him 59th. He says he’s getting there and other results this season bear that out. A win may be asking too much at the moment, but grabbing a top-10 at a place where he has won and has three other top-10s feels very doable.

Brian Kirschner: Jackson Suber Top 20 (+400, DraftKings)

Another golfer in the good wave that I think has a lot of potential in the PGA Tour is Jackson. This is a complete longshot play and I can’t say that he has been amazing this year, but a sixth-place finish at the Sony is enough for me. Not the best driver in the world, but I think he can find himself around this club down course.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland Top 20 (+225, FanDuel)

Hell yeah, brother, let’s ride the lightning of Viktor Hovland’s short game this week. Coming off of three straight missed cuts, Hovland’s game might not look like it’s in the best shape. But I believe he’s close and there might be some value here. He’s gained strokes on approach in his last four events and showed some mild improvement with the putter last week. His ball striking has always been the calling card, but if we can see more positive signs with the putter at a place where he has a T3 and T33 in two starts, there’s reason to believe he could start rounding into more expected form. 

Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry Top 20 (+180, FanDuel) 

Keeping with my theme above, Lowry has been one of the best ball strikers on tour this season. He’s finished inside the Top 20 four times in six starts this year and he was T12 the last time he played here in 2022. The Florida swing has been lucrative for Lowry (over $1.1M won so far) and I’m hoping it will be the same for those of us backing him. 

Final Score Prediction 

• Iain MacMillan: -16
• Matt Vincenzi: -12
• John Schwarb: -13
• Brian Kirschner: -11
• Cody Williams: -12
• Brian Giuffra: - 14

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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