Houston vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Houston is a double-digit favorite on the road in Week 5.

The Houston Cougars and quarterback Conner Weigman are massive favorites on Friday. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Cougars are looking to keep their undefeated 2025 season going on Friday night, as they’ll take on a winless Oregon State Beavers team in Week 5 of the college football season.

Houston is coming off of a bye, but it knocked off Stephen F. Austin, Rice and Colorado all by double digits to open the 2025 season. Quarterback Conner Weigman has yet to throw an interception for the Cougars, and that’s helped them rank 25th in the country in net EPA/Play this season.

Meanwhile, Oregon State is having a nightmare 2025 season, losing badly to the Oregon Ducks, 41-7, in Week 4. 

The Beavers have losses to Cal (by 19), Fresno State (by 9), Texas Tech (by 31) and Oregon (by 34) so far in 2025. Trent Bray’s team ranks 111th in the country in net EPA/Play.

Oddsmakers have set Houston as a double-digit favorite on the road on Friday, but can the Cougars cover the number for the fourth game in a row?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Week 5 battle. 

Houston vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Houston -12.5 (-108)
• Oregon State +12.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Houston: -440
• Oregon State: +340

Total

• 48.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Houston vs. Oregon State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 26
• Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Reser Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Houston record: 3-0
• Oregon State record: 0-4 

Houston vs. Oregon State Key Player to Watch

Conner Weigman, Quarterback, Houston

Through three games this season, Weigman has thrown for just 569 yards, but he has four touchdown passes to zero picks. He’s also made an impact on the ground, rushing 34 times for 142 yards and a trio of scores. 

The Houston offense has not been the driving force to the team’s success, as it ranks just 73rd in college football in EPA/Play and just 130th in offensive success rate.

Weigman will look to turn that around in a cupcake matchup against an Oregon State defense that has allowed at least 34 points in every game, ranking 122nd in defensive EPA/Play this season. 

Houston vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

So far in 2025, Oregon State has just one loss by less than 19 points, and that came against a Fresno State team that isn’t nearly as talented as the Cougars are.

Houston’s defense is elite, ranking No. 1 in the country in defensive EPA/Play and No. 13 in defensive success rate this season, per gameonpaper.com. 

While the Houston offense has not been great in 2025, Oregon State has been shredded by every team that it has faced, allowing 464.5 total yards of offense per game while giving up nearly five yards per carry.

Houston enters this matchup at 3-0 against the spread, and it has wins by 27, 26 and 16 against inferior opponents. 

Even on the road, the Cougars should be able to roll, as Oregon State lost at home to both Cal and Fresno State. 

This season, Houston is averaging +1.52 net yards per play while the Beavers are averaging -1.95 net yards per play. Houston’s No. 1 defense should control this game and lead it to a cover in Week 5. 

Pick: Houston -12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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