Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Champions League Quarterfinals 2nd Leg

Cem Yolbulan | Apr 15, 2025

Alessandro Bastoni (left) and Thomas Müller (right) look poised to feature from the start for Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan. / IMAGO/Gruppo LiveMedia

Inter took advantage of short-handed Bayern Munich in the first leg, coming home with an impressive 2-1 win in Germany. The Italian champions are hoping to hold onto their lead in the second leg to set up a date with Barcelona in the Champions League semifinals. 

Bayern, who has been decimated by injuries in recent weeks, will continue to miss several key players. Inexperienced youngster Jonas Urbig will start in goal as Manuel Neuer suffers from a calf injury. Dayot Upamecano and Alphonso Davies’ injuries create holes in the backline, while Jamal Musiala’s hamstring injury is a major blow on the attacking end.

The German side couldn’t come away with a win over the weekend against bitter rivals Dortmund, either. Fortunately for them, Bayer Leverkusen’s loss means that Bayern still have a comfortable six-point lead at the top of Bundesliga. 

For Bayern, however, it’s never about winning the German league. As one of the most ambitious clubs in the world, Bayern wants to win the Champions League every year. Bowing out in the quarterfinals this season will be a big disappointment as it will be the fifth-consecutive year of flaming out before making it to the Final. 

This will be especially painful for Bayern fans as their club legend Robert Lewandowski and former manager Hansi Flick are currently leading Barcelona to a surprise, deep Champions League run.

Inter, on the other hand, are coming off a 3-1 win over Cagliari in Serie A, bringing them one step closer to their 21st title in Italy. All of their attention, however, will be on Wednesday’s matchup as they hope to continue their journey to win their first Champions League title since 2010. 

Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

To Advance: 

Inter: -300
Bayern Munich: +235

Moneyline:

Inter: +165
Draw: +260
Bayern Munich: +150

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -130
Under 2.5: +106

Over 3.5: +205
Under 3.5: -270

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -154
No: +122

Half-Time Result:

Inter: +210
Draw: +125
Bayern Munich: +195

Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: San Siro, Milan, Italy
• How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, CBS Sports, Fubo

Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich Prediction and Pick

Even though Inter came away with a big advantage in the first leg, that game in Munich could have gone very differently. Bayern had the edge in expected goals, 2.30 to 0.78. Kompany’s men missed multiple big chances as Yann Sommer had six saves for the game. Before supersub Davide Frattesi scored the game winner in the 88th minute, Bayern could have easily been the side to score late and win the first leg. 

At the same time, it’s important to note that some of Bayern’s domination was by design on Inter manager Simone Inzaghi’s part. During the first half of the game until Lautaro Martinez scored the opener for Inter in the 38th minute, it was a much more balanced game. In fact, the Italians dominated possession 55-45 during that span. 

After scoring, Inter was much more comfortable letting Bayern take control of the ball. For the rest of the game, the German side had 69% of possession, taking 13 shots, and getting 29 touches in Inter’s box.

Inter is comfortable playing this way. In their 11 Champions League games so far this season, they only had 51.5% possession, ranking below every remaining team in the competition other than Aston Villa. 

When they don’t have possession, they play a compact and disciplined five-man defensive line. Very few teams in Europe have their level of continuity and tactical commitment. Inzaghi’s unique 3-5-2 formation with Denzel Dumfries or Matteo Darmian on the right side and Federico Dimarco or Carlos Augusto on the other, has been causing all sorts of problems for opponents over the last few seasons. 

Inter is also one of the oldest and most experienced teams in the competition. Their midfield trio of Hakan Calhanoglu, Nicolo Barella, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan provide a rare combination of dynamism, box-to-box play, and passing. They are composed under pressure, difficult to dispossess, are and have a lethal ability to get Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram in goal-scoring opportunities. 

As Bayern takes more and more risks with each passing minute, Inter’s chances of scoring and extending their lead will exponentially grow. Upamecano and Davies’ absences for Bayern will be especially felt when they have to push the defensive line higher as the game progresses. When the likes of Eric Dier and Konrad Laimer are forced to defend in space, the Bayern defense will be vulnerable to Inter’s counter attacks. 

A fully healthy Bayern could have made things interesting in Milan, but they may not have enough this time around to pull off an upset. Inter should be able to win again. 

Pick: Inter ML (+165)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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