Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction, Odds for US Open Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jannik Sinner-Felix Auger-Aliassime match in the US Open semifinals.

Jannik Sinner is a massive favorite in the US Open semifinals. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner quickly disposed of Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals of the US Open, and he’s just one win away from a chance to defend his 2024 US Open title.

On Friday, Sinner will take on No. 25 Felix Auger-Aliassime, who came back from losing the first set of his quarterfinal match to upset Alex de Minaur on Wednesday. Auger-Aliassime is playing in the second US Open semifinal of his career, and this has been by far his best Grand Slam showing in 2025.

Sinner is set as a massive favorite in this match, as he’s lost just one set all tournament and has lost no more than seven games in his other four matches. He last played Auger-Aliassime at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati, defeating him in straight sets.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to the semifinals and my prediction for Friday’s match. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -2500
• Felix Auger-Aliassime: +1300

Total

• 31.5 (Over -120/Under -115)

Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner has been absolutely dominant in this tournament, and he’s looking to make the final in his fourth Grand Slam in 2025. Sinner already has an Australian Open win and a Wimbledon win under his belt.

The Italian needed just 25 games to dispose of Musetti in the quarterfinals and 21 games to beat Alexander Bublik in Round 4. He is favored in a big way in this match despite losing his first two matches against Auger-Aliassime in his career (both in 2022). 

Felix Auger-Aliassime: How Did They Get Here?

Auger-Aliassime has upset three straight top-15 players (No. 3 Alexander Zverev, No. 15 Andrey Rublev and No. 8 Alex de Minaur) to set up this match with Sinner.

While Auger-Aliassime lost badly to Sinner earlier this year, he has shown that he can battle through adversity in this US Open, winning multiple matches against ranked players where he dropped the first set.

Still, he’s an insane underdog in the odds to win this match. Auger-Aliassime has never played in a US Open final in his career. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Sinner -2500 – the No. 1 player in the world has an implied probability of 96.15 percent to advance to the final of the US Open. 

Now, Auger-Aliassime has beaten Sinner twice (both in 2022) and defeated him once via walkover, but I don’t see that happening in this match.

Earlier this year, Sinner defeated Auger-Aliassime 6-0, 6-2 at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati, and the Italian has been absolutely dominant at the US Open.

Sinner has dropped just one set, and he’s lost only 10 games over the course of his last two matches. Those wins both came against ranked players (No. 23 Alexander Bublik and No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti), so I don’t expect Auger-Aliassime to be too much of a challenge.

There is no value in betting on Sinner unless you take him to win in straight sets, but I think he does that once again on his quest to defend his US Open title. 

Pick: Sinner to Win in Straight Sets (-185 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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