Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for US Open Quarterfinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz match in the US Open quarterfinals.

Carlos Alcaraz is favored to make the semifinals in the US Open. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

2022 US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz has yet to drop a set at the 2025 US Open heading into his quarterfinal match against No. 20 Jiri Lehecka. 

Lehecka is making just his second appearance in a quarterfinal of a Grand Slam, and 2025 is already his best showing at the US Open, and he had two first-round exits and a third-round exit on his resume entering this year’s tournament.

The No. 2 player in the world, Alcaraz is looking to reach the final in a third consecutive Grand Slam after he won the French Open and finished as the runner-up to Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon.

Alcaraz is set as a massive favorite in this match, but how should we bet on it?

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction for Tuesday’s showdown. 

Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jiri Lehecka: +1000
• Carlos Alcaraz: -2000

Total

• 32.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 2
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jiri Lehecka: How Did They Get Here?

Lehecka knocked off Adrian Mannarino in four sets in Round 4 to advance to the quarterfinals, and he only has one win in straight sets in the 2025 US Open.

However, he’s beaten Alcaraz before, and they’ve actually played twice already in 2025 – so there should be some familiarity when it comes to the matchup. 

Lehecka made the third round of the US Open in 2024, but he only has one other quarterfinal appearance (the 2023 Australian Open) in his career. 

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here?

Alcaraz’s toughest match in the 2025 US Open may have been his first-round meeting with Reilly Opelka, as he’s lost just four, six and 13 games in his three matches since. Alcaraz needed a tiebreak to win the first set of his Round 4 match with Arthur Rinderknech, but he made quick work afterwards to advance to another quarterfinal.

Alcaraz last played Lehecka at London / Queen's Club and won in three sets (he dropped the second in a tiebreak). 

Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the odds for this match, Alcaraz has an implied probability of 95.24 percent to reach the semifinals in 2025.

While the No. 2 player in the world is a massive favorite, it’s interesting to note that he’s just 2-1 in his career against Lehecka, including a loss in 2025 in the quarterfinals at Doha. 

Both of Alcaraz’s wins against Lehecka have come on grass, and he’s dropped at least one set to him in each of their two meetings in 2025. 

I think the OVER in games played is worth a shot in this match. With the total set at 32.5, it seems that oddsmakers are expecting an Alcaraz win in straight sets. While that’s certainly possible, I wouldn't completely discount Lehecka.

Plus, Lehecka has played at least 30 games in all four of his matches at the US Open this year, clearing this total three times. 

Pick: OVER 32.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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