Karolína Muchová vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds for US Open Quarterfinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Karolína Muchová vs. Naomi Osaka match in the US Open quarterfinals.

Naomi Osaka is favored in her quarterfinal match. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka is back, as she’s made the quarterfinals at the US Open – the first time she’s made the quarters of a Grand Slam since winning the Australian Open in 2021.

Now, Osaka is set to face Karolína Muchová in the quarters after Muchová knocked off No. 27 Marta Kostyuk in three sets in Round 4. Osaka beat No. 3 Coco Gauff in Round 4, and oddsmakers have taken notice of that win.

Osaka is the favorite in the odds at the best betting sites to advance to the semifinals of the US Open.

Can the two-time US Open champion get it done? Muchová will be a tough opponent as she’s made the semis in each of the last two years in New York.

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction for this match. 

Karolína Muchová vs. Naomi Osaka Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Karolína Muchová: +200
• Naomi Osaka: -250

Total

• 22.5 (Over -110/Under -125)

Karolína Muchová vs. Naomi Osaka How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 3
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Karolína Muchová: How Did They Get Here?

Muchova needed three sets in Round 4 to pick up the win over Kostyuk, but she has actually dropped a set in every match so far in the US Open. So, the No. 11 player in the world is used to playing under some pressure in New York already.

Each of the last two years (2023 and 2024), Muchova has found herself in the US Open semifinals, although she’s struggled at Grand Slam events in 2025, failing to make it out of the first round at the French Open and at Wimbledon.

She’s faced Osaka five times in her career, going 2-3 in those matches. 

Naomi Osaka: How Did They Get Here?

Is this Osaka’s grand return to the championship stage? 

The 27-year-old has turned in by far her best Grand Slam showing since 2021, knocking off Gauff (No. 3 in the world) and Daria Kasatkina (No. 15 in the world) in her last two matches. 

Osaka has dropped just one set in the entire US Open, and she knocked off Gauff by losing just five total games. 

She did beat Muchova in their last match earlier this year, knocking her out in the second round of the Australian Open. 

Karolína Muchová vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Osaka -250 – the former World No. 1 has an implied probability of 71.43 percent to win this match and advance to the semifinals.

Osaka has been far more dominant at the US Open, as Muchova has not had a win in straight sets all tournament long. However, she has beaten Osaka at the US Open before, knocking her out in 2024 in straight sets.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see these two split the first two sets, as Muchova has thrived at the US Open in her career and Osaka is playing some of her best tennis since her last Grand Slam win.

In their Australian Open match earlier this year, Muchova and Osaka went to three sets and played 23 total games.

I think the OVER is the best bet to make in this match, as I’m not totally sold on Osaka as such a heavy favorite. 

Pick: OVR 22.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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