Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

The Liberty are road favorites in Game 1.

Can New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart lead the Liberty back to the WNBA Finals? / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The defending WNBA champion New York Liberty are on the road to open the 2025 playoffs, as they earned the No. 5 seed in the league despite an injury-filled campaign.

They’ll take on a veteran Phoenix Mercury squad – led by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally – in the first round. 

Game 1 is set for Sunday evening, and oddsmakers at the best betting sites have the Liberty set as road favorites in this matchup.

Can Breanna Stewart and company make a deep playoff run to reach the Finals for the third season in a row?

Here’s a breakdown of Game 1 of this first-round matchup, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction. 

Liberty vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Liberty -2 (-108)
• Mercury +2 (-112)

Moneyline

• Liberty: -135
• Mercury: +114

Total

• 164.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Liberty vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 14
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Liberty vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Liberty vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Satou Sabally UNDER 14.5 Points (+100)

Mercury forward Satou Sabally has struggled as of late, averaging just 13.9 points in 21 games after the All-Star break while shooting just 11.3 shots per game. Sabally has just eight games during that stretch where she scored more than 14.5 points.

In her two meetings with the Liberty since the break, Sabally had just 14 and six points, and I’m not buying her in this matchup against a Liberty team that was in the top half of the league in defensive rating in 2025 despite a ton of injuries in the regular season.

At even money, the UNDER for this prop is worth a look in Game 1. 

Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

New York won its final three games of the regular season, and I’m buying the Liberty coming into the playoffs as long as they can stay healthy.

New York was 22-9 when Breanna Stewart was in the lineup this season, although it did win just one of three meetings with the Mercury in the regular season.

Ultimately, New York’s experience in the playoffs as a unit is something I don’t want to underrate. The Liberty have made back-to-back trips to the Finals with the core of Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu, and now they’re taking on a Mercury team that has a lot of new pieces from last season.

Copper, Thomas and Sabally all have playoff experience, but the Liberty trio may be more talented and has a couple of former league MVPs on the roster.

Phoenix’s offense is a concern (No. 7 in the W), as the Liberty are one of the best offenses in the league whenever Stewie is on the court and still finished in the top five in offensive rating during the regular season.

I lean with the Liberty to win Game 1 on the road on Sunday. 

Pick: Liberty Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Regardless of the outcome of your wager,DraftKings will add eight $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account and award one promo code for a discounted NFL Sunday ticket subscription.