Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Playoffs Game 3

Who will advance to the WNBA Semifinals?

Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally is a solid prop target in Game 3. / Allan Henry-Imagn Images

It’s win or go home for the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury on Friday night in Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs.

Phoenix avoided elimination with a 26-point road win on Wednesday night, and it’s now favored to win this series on Friday night.

The defending champion Liberty won Game 1 on the road in overtime, but they laid an egg in Game 2 even with Breanna Stewart (knee) in the lineup.

Stewart revealed before Game 2 that she’s dealing with a sprained MCL, which is something to monitor going forward for the Liberty.

Both of these teams are loaded with veterans with playoff experience, but which squad has the edge in this series finale? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Game 3. 

Liberty vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Liberty +2 (-105)
• Mercury -2 (-115)

Moneyline

• Liberty: +120
• Mercury: -142

Total

• 156 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 19
• Time: 
• Venue:
• How to Watch (TV):
• Liberty record:
• Mercury record:

Liberty vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

(Note: Breanna Stewart is playing through a sprained MCL that she suffered in Game 1).

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Liberty vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Satou Sabally OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-125)

During the regular season, Sabally averaged 5.9 rebounds per game for the Mercury, but she’s stepped things up in this series, grabbing eight boards in Game 1 and seven in Game 2.

Sabally didn’t even need to play 30 minutes of action in Game 2 to easily clear this prop, and she’s pulled down six or more boards in four of her six meetings (including playoffs) against the Mercury this season. 

The Liberty were just 10th in the WNBA in rebounding percentage during the regular season, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Mercury control the glass in this decisive Game 3. 

Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is worth a look in this series finale: 

The first two games of this series have been relatively low-scoring – even though Game 1 went to overtime.

These squads combined for just 145 points in Game 1 and 146 points in Game 2, with one of the two teams failing to crack 70 points in both matchups.

With so much at stake in Game 3, I wouldn’t be surprised if these defenses hit yet another level on Friday night. 

Overall, the Mercury and Liberty both ranked in the top half in the WNBA in defense rating during the regular season, and after playing three games that went way OVER this number early in the campaign, they combined for just 143 points in their last regular-season meeting.

The UNDER was 25-18-1 in New York’s games during the regular season and 24-18-2 in Phoenix's games.

I think the total is a touch too high for Friday’s series finale. 

Pick: UNDER 156 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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