LPGA Live Odds: Will Nelly Korda Catch Maja Stark in Final Round of U.S. Women's Open?

Iain MacMillan | May 31, 2025

Nelly Korda has +450 live odds to win the U.S. Women's Open. / Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first three rounds of the U.S. Women's Open at Erin Hills are in the books, and we're in for an electric final round on Sunday.

Sweden's Maja Stark will enter Sunday's round with a one-shot lead at seven under par as she seeks her first career major victory. Julia Lopez Ramirez sits one shot back of her at -6, and then a Japanese trio in Rio Takeda, Hinako Shibuno, and Mao Sigo all sit tied for third at -6. The No. 1 ranked women's golfer in the world, Nelly Korda, sits at -4 and in solo sixth, bouncing back from a disastrous opening nine on Saturday, posting a three under par back nine to put herself in contention.

Despite being three shots back from Stark, Korda will enter the final round just slightly behind the Swede on the live odds board. Let's take a look.

U.S. Women's Open live odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Maja Stark +350
• Nelly Korda +450
• Rio Takeda +450
• Mao Saigo +600
• Julia Lopez Ramirez +800
• Hinako Shiburno +1000
• Minjee Lee +1600
• Linn Grant +2500
• Sarah Schmelzel +2800
• Ruoning Yin +2800
• Yealimi Noh +4500

At +350, Stark will enter the final round as the betting favorite to win her first career major. If you translate her odds to implied probability, she has a 22.22% chance of winning.

Korda and Takeda are right behind her at +450, each having an implied probability of 18.18%.

Who will win the U.S. Women's Open?

My top pick before the tournament began was Nelly Korda, so for those of you who tailed that pick, I'm going to go a different direction for a live bet before the final round. There's a golfer who I think has fantastic value as a live bet, and while it isn't the leader, Maja Stark, it's her fellow Swede, Linn Grant at +2500.

Driving the ball at an elite level is going to give any golfer a significant advantage at Erin Hills, and no one has driven the ball better than Grant, leading the field in strokes gained off the tee, averaging +1.84 strokes per round in that area. She's also gaining 0.96 strokes with her approach and 0.73 strokes per round on the greens.

She enters the final round at T7, only four strokes back from Stark and based on how difficult this course has played all week, that gap could be shortened in a hurry if Stark and Ramirez stumble early in their rounds.

If you want to bet on a golfer near the top of the odds list, Korda or Takeda are likely the way you'll want to go, but if you want a dark horse bet with a potential for a big payout, none are better than Grant at 25-1.

Live Bet: Linn Grant +2500 via DraftKings

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