Mariners vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for ALCS Game 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Game 1 of the ALCS between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays are favored with pitcher Kevin Gausman on the mound. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the ALCS is upon us!

The Seattle Mariners hit the road on Sunday night to take on the top-seeded Toronto Blue Jays, and oddsmakers have the Jays favored to earn the win at home.

Toronto made quick work of the New York Yankees in the ALDS, winning in four games while putting together some huge offensive showings (34 runs in the series). 

Seattle had a much different path to the ALCS, as it went the distance against the Detroit Tigers, winning Game 5 on Friday night in 15 innings. So, there may be some fatigue on the Mariners side entering Game 1. 

Toronto has ace Kevin Gausman (1.59 playoff ERA this season) on the mound in Game 1 against Seattle’s Bryce Miller, who struggled a bit during the regular season. 

Who has the edge in this ALCS opener?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday’s matchup. 

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mariners +1.5 (-141)
• Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)

Moneyline

• Mariners: +135
• Blue Jays: -165

Total

• 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

• Seattle: Bryce Miller (4-6, 5.68 ERA, 0-0, 4.15 ERA)
• Toronto: Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA, 1-0, 1.59 ERA)

Mariners vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 12
• Time: 8:03 p.m. EST
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Series: Tied 0-0

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+248)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Raleigh is a must bet against Gausman: 

This is a terrific matchup for All-Star catcher Cal Raleigh, even though Gausman pitched well in his first game of the 2025 postseason.

In his career against Gausman, Raleigh is hitting 5-for-12 (.417) with three home runs and a 1.628 OPS. He’s homered in a quarter of his at bats all time against Gausman.

Raleigh crushed 60 home runs during the regular season, and he homered once in the ALDS, posting a .381 batting average and 1.051 OPS against Detroit.

He’s been red hot to open the postseason, and I love betting on him to go yard in a familiar matchup on Sunday. 

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

In today’s MLB best bets column at SI Betting, I shared why the Jays are the bet to make in Game 1:

Toronto was a dominant team at home in the regular season, going 54-27, and that continued into the ALDS.

The Jays put up double-digit runs in back-to-back games at home against the Yankees, and they’ll look to do the same in a favorable matchup against Bryce Miller.

While Miller allowed just two runs and four hits in 4.1 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS, he struggled in the regular season. He posted an expected ERA of 5.29 and an expected batting average against of .285. Plus, Miller ranked in first percentile in average exit velocity against.

That’s going to be an issue against a Jays team that doesn't strike out (first in MLB in K’s per game) and has the best batting average in MLB. 

Plus, Gausman has a lot more playoff experience than Miller and was extremely solid in the ALDS against the Yankees.

With the Mariners coming off a marathon matchup in Game 5 of the ALDS, this is a prime letdown spot on the road. 

I’ll back the Jays to get the win to open this series. 

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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