Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 10

Are the Mariners undervalued in a matchup against Brandon Pfaadt and the D-Backs?

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has been a starter to fade this season. / John Hefti-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners dropped their series opener with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, but they seem to have a better chance to win Game 2, as oddsmakers have set them in a near pick’em despite Seattle being on the road.

The main reason why is the struggles of Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 5.51 ERA this season and has given up 13 runs over his last two starts.

Arizona has stumbled a bit after a strong start to 2025, falling to two games under .500. However, the Mariners have been worse as of late, losing seven of their last 10 games to squander their lead in the AL West division.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s action. 

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mariners -1.5 (+151)
• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185)

Moneyline

• Mariners: -108
• Diamondbacks: -112

Total

• 9 (Over +101/Under -123)

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• Seattle: Logan Evans (3-1, 2.83 ERA)
• Arizona: Brandon Pfaadt (7-4, 5.51 ERA)

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 10
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): ARID, ROOT Sports NW
• Mariners record: 33-32
• Diamondbacks record: 32-34

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+500)

If you’re looking for more of a longshot bet on Tuesday, I gave one out in today’s best home run picks for SI Betting. Jorge Polanco (10 homers this season) may be worth a look against Brandon Pfaadt: 

This play is the biggest longshot bet I’m taking on Tuesday, but I love the matchup for Jorge Polanco and the Seattle Mariners against Arizona Diamondbacks youngster Brandon Pfaadt.

Pfaadt is really struggling at the moment, allowing 12 homers in 13 starts while posting a 5.51 ERA this season. The D-Backs righty 8.80 ERA in seven starts since May 1. 

Polanco has done a ton of damage against right-handed pitching this season, hitting all 10 of his home runs while posting a .260/.307/.494 slash line. He’s also started to turn things around as of late, hitting .269 over the last week of action.

Bettors may want to play it safe and take Cal Raleigh (26 homers this season) to go deep, and I don’t mind that play. But, Polanco offers a little more value in terms of his odds if he’s able to stay hot against righties.

In his career against Pfaadt, Polanco is 1-for-3. 

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Mariners are undervalued on the road: 

Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt is on the mound on Tuesday night, and he’s a must-fade for bettors in this matchup with the Seattle Mariners.

Pfaadt has a 5.51 ERA this season, and things have gotten worse over his last seven starts (since May 1). Over that stretch, he’s posted an 8.80 ERA, allowing 13 earned runs over his last three innings of work (two starts).

That simply isn’t going to get it done against a Seattle Mariners team that ranks in the top half of MLB in OPS and runs scored this season. While the Mariners are sending Logan Evans to the mound (2.83 ERA but a 4.73 FIP this season), I think they’re the clear bet to make against Pfaadt.

The D-Backs righty ranks in the second percentile in expected ERA this season (6.95) and the first percentile in expected batting average against (.325). Seattle should dominate on offense on Tuesday night. 

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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