Marlins vs. Cardinals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 29

The Cardinals are 16-5 in Sonny Gray's starts this season.

The Cardinals are 16-5 in Sonny Gray's starts this season. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Both the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals are on the outside of the playoff picture in the National League, but they could find themselves in the mix with a strong close to the regular season.

St. Louis won the opening matchup between these teams on Monday, and it’ll have ace Sonny Gray (4.33 ERA) on the mound for Game 2.

Miami will counter with Sandy Alcantara (6.66 ERA), who has struggled in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Miami has been frisky on the road this season (26-26), but it has been set as an underdog in this game.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s action. 

Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line 

• Marlins +1.5 (-157)
• Cardinals -1.5 (+129)

Moneyline

• Marlins: +140
• Cardinals: -172

Total

• 7.5 (Over -116/Under -104)

Marlins vs. Cardinals Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Sandy Alcantara (5-9, 6.66 ERA)
• St. Louis: Sonny Gray (10-4, 4.33 ERA)

Marlins vs. Cardinals How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 29
• Time: 7:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FDSMW, FDSFL
• Marlins record: 50-55
• Cardinals record: 55-53

Marlins vs. Cardinals Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Sandy Alcantara UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+115)

This season, Alcantara has really struggled at generating punchouts, striking out just 77 batters across 104.0 innings of work. 

Now, he takes on a Cardinals team that is No. 4 in MLB K’s per game (7.6), and oddsmakers have moved his strikeout prop all the way down to just 3.5. 

Per Statcast, Alcantara ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage in the 2025 season. He’s going to be extremely tough to trust against the Cards, especially since he hasn’t recorded more than four strikeouts in six straight starts.

I’ll fade him on Tuesday night. 

Marlins vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m backing the Cardinals to bounce back with Sonny Gray on the bump: 

Sonny Gray has struggled in his last two starts for the Cardinals, allowing 22 hits, 16 runs (14 earned) and four home runs. Despite that, St. Louis found a way to win one of those games and is a shocking 16-5 when Gray is on the mound this season.

Can he keep that rolling against the Miami Marlins?

Miami is third in the NL East this season, but it has struggling ace Sandy Alcantara on the mound in this matchup. Alcantara is coming off Tommy John surgery, and he has not found his old form, posting a 6.66 ERA while leading Miami to a 9-11 record in his 20 starts.

I am betting on a Gray bounce back in this game at home, where the Cardinals are an impressive 32-22 this season despite being just 55-53 overall. 

While the Marlins have played better than many expected this season, they still have a minus-54 run differential and have not fared well with Alcantara on the bump. The Marlins starter has given up at least four earned runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season.

I can’t trust him to beat Gray at home, even with the Cardinals ace coming off back-to-back bad starts. 

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-172 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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