Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Rays-Yankees, Mets-Padres, Marlins-Cardinals)

Can Sean Manaea keep the Padres in check on Tuesday?

The UNDER is a great bet in the New York Mets-San Diego Padres matchup. / John Jones-Imagn Images

Tuesday’s MLB action begins with a doubleheader between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, meaning that we have 16 (!) games to bet on.

With such a loaded slate of games, I’ve narrowed things down when it comes to my MLB Best Bets, as I’m targeting both the New York Yankees and New York Mets and their matchups, although I’m focused on the total.

Plus, can Sonny Gray bounce back at home for a St. Louis Cardinals team that is falling out of the playoff race? 

Let’s dive into each of the picks — and their odds at the best betting sites — for Tuesday, July 29.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, July 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Tampa Bay Rays-New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 (-115)
• St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-172) vs. Miami Marlins
• New York Mets-San Diego Padres UNDER 8 (-102)

Tampa Bay Rays-New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees dropped their series opener with the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, scoring just two runs with Aaron Judge out of the lineup with a flexor strain.

Judge has carried the New York offense for much of the 2025 season, and there’s no doubt that this team is going to regress in some way without him.

So, on Tuesday, I’m leaning towards the UNDER for the Yankees’ Game 2 matchup with Tampa Bay.

The Rays are already one of the best UNDER teams in the league (61-43-3), hitting it at a 58.7 percent clip so far this season. New York has hit the under in 53.9 percent of its games.

On the bright side for Yankees fans that want to see their team win on Tuesday, Max Fried is on the mound for the 22nd time this season, and New York is 14-7 in his starts. Overall, Fried has given up three or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 21 outings in 2025.

The Rays will counter with Joe Boyle (1.42 ERA) in what should be a bullpen game. Tampa Bay has a solid bullpen ERA (3.88) and the group should be able to handle a weakened New York offense. 

St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-172) vs. Miami Marlins

Sonny Gray has struggled in his last two starts for the Cardinals, allowing 22 hits, 16 runs (14 earned) and four home runs. Despite that, St. Louis found a way to win one of those games and is a shocking 16-5 when Gray is on the mound this season.

Can he keep that rolling against the Miami Marlins?

Miami is third in the NL East this season, but it has struggling ace Sandy Alcantara on the mound in this matchup. Alcantara is coming off Tommy John surgery, and he has not found his old form, posting a 6.66 ERA while leading Miami to a 9-11 record in his 20 starts.

I am betting on a Gray bounce back in this game at home, where the Cardinals are an impressive 32-22 this season despite being just 55-53 overall. 

While the Marlins have played better than many expected this season, they still have a minus-54 run differential and have not fared well with Alcantara on the bump. The Marlins starter has given up at least four earned runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season.

I can’t trust him to beat Gray at home, even with the Cardinals ace coming off back-to-back bad starts. 

New York Mets-San Diego Padres UNDER 8 (-102)

The New York Mets had their seven-game winning streak snapped on Monday night against the San Diego Padres, but they’ll aim to bounce back on Tuesday with lefty Sean Manaea making his fourth appearance of the 2025 season.

Manaea has been solid so far in 2025, posting a 2.19 ERA, allowing exactly one run in each of his three outings. He’ll take on San Diego’s Ryan Bergert (2.84 ERA), who has moved into a starter role for the Padres.

Bergert hasn’t been pitching deep into games, so the Mets should see a lot of the Padres’ bullpen, which has a 3.03 ERA this season – the best mark in MLB. 

I’m going to bet on the UNDER in this game, as the Padres have been a great UNDER team all season, going 60-44-3 (57.7 percent) to the UNDER in their games in 2025. On top of that, the Mets have hit the UNDER in 53.9 percent of their games this season.

Through three appearances, Manaea has kept opponents in check, and he should be able to handle a Padres lineup that ranks 25th in MLB in runs scored this season.

While I’d love to get the hook at 8.5, I don’t mind the -102 price on the UNDER in this matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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