Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

Iain MacMillan | Jun 15, 2025

The Mercury areroad underdogs against the Aces in Sunday WNBA action. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Aces have been hit with the injury bug this season, and none has been bigger than losing the reigning WNBA MVP, A'ja Wilson, to concussion protocol.

The Aces were still able to beat the Dallas Wings with Wilson sidelined, but now she's out against the Phoenix Mercury, making this Sunday's showdown much tougher for Las Vegas to win.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for Sunday's game.

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury -4.5 (-108)
• Aces +4.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Mercury -198
• Aces +164

Total

• 165 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Aces Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Kahleah Copper, G - Out
• Kalani Brown, C - Game Time Decision
• Megan McConnell, G - Out

Aces Injury Report

• A'ja Wilson, C - Out
• Megan Gustafson, C - Out
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, F - Out

Mercury vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, June 15
• Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Mercury record: 7-4
• Aces record: 5-4

Mercury vs. Aces Players to Watch in Prop Market

Note: No props were available as of writing this article

• Jackie Young OVER Points

With Wilson out for the Aces in their most recent game, we saw Jackie Young step up in a big way,scoring 28 points in 33 minutes. That's now back-to-back 28+ performances for Young after she put up 34 points against the Sparks. She's now averaging 19.4 points on the season, but it's time to buy stock in her as she's proving she can put up points in bunches either as the No. 1 scorer with Wilson sidelined or as a great No. 2 option if the MVP is able to go.

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

The Mercury are an underrated team in this spot. They're 7-4, but have a net rating this season of +2.0, which is better than the Aces, who come in at -1.9. A big part of their success has been their strong defensive play, ranking fourth in the WNBA in defensive rating while the Aces come in at ninth in that stat.

The Aces, even with Wilson on the court, have struggled with their rebounding this season, grabbing just 66.9% of defensive rebounds, by far the lowest rate in the league. That has allowed other teams to create second-chance scoring opportunities against them, and the Mercury have been great at doing exactly that, grabbing 27.8% of offensive rebounds this season.

I'll take the points with the Mercury as favorites on Sunday.

Pick: Mercury -4.5 (-110) via DraftKings

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