Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Finals Game 2

The Aces are favored at home in Game 2.

The Las Vegas Aces are favored in Game 2. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces escaped Game 1 of the WNBA Finals with a win thanks to 21 points off the bench from Dana Evans and 18 points off the bench from Jewell Loyd.

Now, the Aces are set as slight favorites over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 2 of this best-of-seven series.

The Aces have lost just six games at home all season long, going 17-5 in the regular season and 5-1 in the playoffs. However, they trailed for a good chunk of Game 1 after the Mercury started out on fire from beyond the arc.

Phoenix will look to keep that rolling in Game 2, but the team’s defense (top five in the W during the regular season) will have to be better after allowing 89 points in Game 1. 

The Aces can score with just about any team in the league, but both Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray were banged up in Game 1. Neither guard is on the injury report, but they’re certainly players worth monitoring as this series progresses.

Here’s a breakdown of Game 2, including the latest odds, player props and more for the Mercury-Aces matchup. 

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury +2.5 (-110)
• Aces -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +124
• Aces: -148

Total

• 164.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mercury vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 5
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Las Vegas leads 1-0

Mercury vs. Aces Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Satou Sabally OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)

Through eight games this postseason, Satou Sabally has hit at least two 3-point shots in six of them, including each of her last four games.

During the playoffs, Sabally is shooting 35.1 percent from 3 on 7.1 attempts per game, and she’s taken at least seven shots from beyond the arc in five of her eight games.

While the Aces had the No. 2 3-point percentage defensively in the W during the regular season, Sabally went 3-for-7 from deep in Game 1 despite sitting out stretches due to foul trouble.

If she’s going to be willing to get up seven or more shots from beyond the arc, she’s a must bet to make two or more in Game 2. 

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking Las Vegas to win Game 2:

This is a square play, but I love the Aces to win Game 2 and take a 2-0 series lead on Sunday afternoon.

Las Vegas is a combined 22-6 at home this season (regular season and playoffs), and it weathered a game where the Mercury knocked down 14 shots from beyond the arc to win in Game 1.

Phoenix has plenty of scoring to keep up with the Aces, but it turned the ball over 12 times in Game 1. Phoenix played at a fast pace in the regular season (No. 3 in the league), but the team had trouble slowing down the Aces in transition when they went to their four-guard lineup around Wilson.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Mercury adjust their rotation to match up better with the Aces when they go small. 

I can’t expect another shooting game like that from Phoenix from beyond the arc, and it’s lost four of five meetings with Las Vegas this season.

At home, I think Wilson and company take care of business after making a huge comeback in Game 1. 

Pick: Aces Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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