Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Aces, Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Game 2 of the WNBA Finals between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces.

Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally is a great prop target in Game 2. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the WNBA Finals was an instant classic, as the Phoenix Mercury shot the lights out from beyond the arc but ultimately came up short against a resilient Las Vegas Aces team.

Guard Dana Evans was the unexpected hero of Game 1 for Las Vegas, scoring 21 points while knocking down 5-of-6 shots from 3-point range off the bench in the win.

Now, the Aces are favored at home in Game 2 of this best-of-seven series.

In five meetings in 2025 (including playoffs), the Aces are 4-1 against the Mercury and Alyssa Thoams, who were unable to close things out despite leading for a lot of Game 1. Phoenix shot 14-for-36 from beyond the arc in Game 1, but it was not enough to beat an Aces team that has lost just six times (including playoffs) at home this season.

So, who should we bet on in Game 2?

I have a couple of player props and a side that I’m considering as the WNBA Finals roll on. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 85-87-2 (-4.96 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 169-163-2 (-0.49 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-148) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Satou Sabally OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)
• Alyssa Thomas OVER 14.5 Points (-125)

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-148) vs. Phoenix Mercury

This is a square play, but I love the Aces to win Game 2 and take a 2-0 series lead on Sunday afternoon.

Las Vegas is a combined 22-6 at home this season (regular season and playoffs), and it weathered a game where the Mercury knocked down 14 shots from beyond the arc to win in Game 1.

Phoenix has plenty of scoring to keep up with the Aces, but it turned the ball over 12 times in Game 1. Phoenix played at a fast pace in the regular season (No. 3 in the league), but the team had trouble slowing down the Aces in transition when they went to their four-guard lineup around Wilson.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Mercury adjust their rotation to match up better with the Aces when they go small. 

I can’t expect another shooting game like that from Phoenix from beyond the arc, and it’s lost four of five meetings with Las Vegas this season.

At home, I think Wilson and company take care of business after making a huge comeback in Game 1. 

Satou Sabally OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)

Through eight games this postseason, Satou Sabally has hit at least two 3-point shots in six of them, including each of her last four games.

During the playoffs, Sabally is shooting 35.1 percent from 3 on 7.1 attempts per game, and she’s taken at least seven shots from beyond the arc in five of her eight games.

While the Aces had the No. 2 3-point percentage defensively in the W during the regular season, Sabally went 3-for-7 from deep in Game 1 despite sitting out stretches due to foul trouble.

If she’s going to be willing to get up seven or more shots from beyond the arc, she’s a must bet to make two or more in Game 2. 

Alyssa Thomas OVER 14.5 Points (-125)

Alyssa Thomas needed just 10 shots (7-for-10 from the field, 1-for-4 from the free-throw line) to score 15 points in Game 1 and clear this line.

She’s now scored 15 or more points in seven of her eight playoff games. The only game she failed to do so was in Game 1 of the first round against the New York Liberty.

Thomas has the ball in her hands a ton for the Mercury, as she’s their primary playmaker on offense. As a result, she’s taken 15.9 shots per game in the playoffs and is shooting 48.8 percent from the field.

In fact, Game 1 of the Finals was her lowest shot total of the postseason. So, if Thomas’ usage climbs a bit in Game 2, she’s a steal at this line given her aggressiveness scoring the ball in the playoffs.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Unlock $200 in bonus bets — all without a promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet. If you win, you will receive $200 in bonus bets instantly.