Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Thursday, June 19

The Liberty are massive favorites at home on Thursday.

The Liberty are massive favorites at home on Thursday. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The New York Liberty are off to a great start in the 2025 season, winning 10 of their first 11 games, and they find themselves as massive favorites at home on Thursday against the Phoenix Mercury. 

Phoenix has the third-best record in the W at 9-4, and it’s won three games in a row entering this matchup. However, the Mercury are playing the second night of a back-to-back after beating the Connecticut Sun in Connecticut on Wednesday.

Kahleah Copper (knee) has returned to action for the Mercury, but she’s been on a minutes limit and could be limited even more on the second night of a back-to-back. In fact, there’s a chance she sits out this game for rest purposes.

These teams could find themselves matched up in the playoffs – potentially in the WNBA Finals – if they keep up their current paces, but who has the edge on Thursday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for June 19. 

Mercury vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mercury +11 (-110)
• Liberty -11 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +525
• Liberty: -750

Total

• 162.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mercury vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 19
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Mercury record: 9-4
• Liberty record: 10-1

Mercury vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Megan McConnell – out
• Sami Whitcomb – day-to-day

Liberty Injury Report

• Leonie Fiebich – out

Mercury vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 19.5 Points (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Sabrina Ionescu is worth a bet to stay hot on Thursday: 

Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu has been on fire to start the 2025 season, averaging 20.8 points per game while shooting 45.8 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from beyond the arc. 

Ionescu has scored 34 points in each of her last two games, shooting 23-for-40 from the field and 8-for-18 from beyond the arc during that stretch. Overall, the All-Star guard has scored 20 or more points in six of her 11 games in 2025, including her last three contests.

While this is a tough matchup against the No. 4 defense in the W in Phoenix, I have a hard time fading Ionescu given how many shots she’s putting up on a nightly basis.

The Liberty star is averaging 15.1 shots per game, and she’s taken at least 14 shots in six of her last seven games, attempting 20-plus shots in three of those contests. 

Over her last seven games, Ionescu is averaging 24.9 points per game while shooting 39.4 percent from 3. If she continues to be this efficient, she’s a great bet to clear this number for the seventh time in 2025. 

Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

New York has been elite at home this season, going 6-0 straight up with four of those wins coming by double digits.

While Phoenix has been extremely impressive in the 2025 season, I’m worried about the Mercury on the second night of a back-to-back.

Not only has Copper missed time this season, but veteran forward Alyssa Thomas has as well. There’s a chance that the organization takes things easy with the two vets, which would explain the wide spread on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Liberty recently got Jonquel Jones back in action, and they’ve led the W in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating (+18.5) all season long. 

The Mercury are sixth in the W in net rating (+3.1), but I’m not sold on them covering this number if they’re not at full strength. 

I lean with New York to pick up another double-digit win at home tonight. 

Pick: Liberty -11 (-110 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn $300 in bonus bets if you win your initial bet. DraftKings will issue 12 $25 bonus bets.