Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 16

The Lynx are favored to keep their perfect 11-0 record at home alive on Wednesday.

The Minnesota Lynx are favored on Wednesday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

For the second time this month, the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx will face off. 

These teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in the WNBA standings, but the Lynx have a three-game cushion – despite losing the last matchup in Arizona between these squads – ahead of Wednesday’s matchup.

Minnesota would love to enter the All-Star break on a high note, especially since it’s likely the Mercury won’t be at full strength on July 16. Phoenix has played several games in a row without Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally or Lexi Held.

As a result, the Lynx are eight-point favorites at home, where they are a perfect 11-0 in the regular season. Can Minnesota keep that winning streak going in the final matchup before the break?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s action. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mercury +8 (-110)
• Lynx -8 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +285
• Lynx: -360

Total

• 161.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 16
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network North, Arizona’s Family Sports
• Mercury record: 15-6
• Lynx record: 19-4

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Lexi Held – out
• Satou Sabally – out
• Kahleah Copper – out

Lynx Injury Report

• Karlie Samuelson – out

Mercury vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

These prop bet picks were written before odds were released and are based on past player performance. 

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Alyssa Thomas OVER Assists

Whether Sabally and Copper are out or not, Alyssa Thomas has become a must-bet in the assists market as of late. 

Thomas is averaging 9.6 assists per game this season, and she’s picked up 10 or more dimes in four of her last six games and eight of 16 total games in the 2025 season.

A nightly triple-double threat, Thomas will be the focal point of the offense if the Mercury are shorthanded, and she’s proven that even when Sabally and Copper play, she can set them up. I love her in this market on Wednesday. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Lynx are worth a bet at home: 

The Phoenix Mercury have been without Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper for multiple games in a row, and it’s hard to see either player returning to action on Wednesday night.

That’s led to oddsmakers setting the Lynx as sizable favorites in their final game ahead of the All-Star break. 

I love Minnesota to win and cover in this matchup, even though it lost by eight in Phoenix to Alyssa Thomas and company on July 9. The Mercury didn’t have Sabally or Copper in that game, but it took a near triple-double from Thomas to get a win.

Even with the Mercury pulling off a one-point win over the Golden State Valkyries on Monday, I don’t think they’re nearly as dangerous if Sabally and Copper sit.

Minnesota remains a perfect 11-0 at home in regular season games, and it’s covered the spread in 13 of 23 appearances in 2025. I like the Lynx to protect home court and enter the break on a high note, as they do have the best net rating and record in the W so far this season. 

Pick: Lynx -8 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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