Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 26

The Mercury are road favorites in this Western Conference clash.

Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas is an elite prop target on Tuesday. / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

A playoff spot is there for the taking for the Los Angeles Sparks, who are just one game under .500 entering Tuesday’s matchup with the Phoenix Mercury.

The best betting sites have Phoenix set as a road favorite in this matchup, as it aims to finish in the top four in the standings behind a monster season from MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas.

Meanwhile, Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, and the Sparks are just one game out of the No. 8 seed and 1.5 games back of the No. 6 seed entering the final stretch of the regular season.

Los Angeles has rebounded nicely from a slow start to 2025, but does it have enough to get over the hump and into the playoffs?

Defense will be the key for the Sparks, as they’ve posted one of the worst defensive ratings in the W this season and rank dead last in that category over their last 10 games despite a 6-4 record.

With a ton at stake in the playoff picture, let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Western Conference battle on Aug. 26.

Mercury vs. Sparks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury -4 (-112)
• Sparks +4 (-108)

Moneyline

• Mercury: -170
• Sparks: +142

Total

• 173 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mercury vs. Sparks How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 26
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Mercury record: 22-14
• Sparks record: 17-18

Mercury vs. Sparks Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Sparks Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury vs. Sparks Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Alyssa Thomas OVER 8.5 Assists (-150)

This season, Thomas is averaging 9.2 assists per game for Phoenix and has recorded several triple-doubles, putting herself in the mix for the league’s MVP award.

This is a dream matchup for Thomas and the Mercury, as the Sparks rank 12th in the WNBA in opponent assists per game and 12th in defensive rating (they’re dead last in DRTG over their last 10 games).

Thomas has picked up nine or more dimes in 16 of her 31 games this season, and she’s recorded five triple-doubles since the All-Star break. I think she’s a great bet to clear this line against one of the weakest defensive teams in the W. 

Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Mercury are the team to back in this Western Conference showdown:

Over the last 10 games, the Sparks have the worst defensive rating in the WNBA, and it makes them a tough team to trust – especially against the playoff-bound Mercury.

Phoenix has just the ninth-best offense in the WNBA over its last 10 games, but it ranks second in the league in defensive rating during that stretch and is fourth overall in defense this season.

The Mercury have also played well on the road, winning 10 of their 18 games outright. The same can’t be said for Los Angeles at home (7-10), although it has turned things around in the second half of the season.

As much as I’d like to take the Sparks to win this game as an underdog, I don’t think their defense is good enough to cover against this Mercury team. 

Phoenix can grind out games when needed, and it should be able to score at will against this weak Los Angeles defense. While the Sparks have won six of their last 10 games, their last three wins have all come by one possession, with two of them coming against an inferior Dallas team.

L.A. is just 15-19-1 against the spread this season, and I think it’s going to struggle against one of the league’s best teams on Tuesday.

Pick: Mercury -4 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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