Mets' MLB Playoff Odds (New York Heavily Favored to Reach Postseason Despite Losing Streak)

Breaking down the New York Mets' odds to make the playoffs in the 2025 season.

The New York Mets are -290 to make the playoffs. / Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images

Just a few weeks ago, the New York Mets appeared to be a lock to make the playoffs in the National League and a true contender to win the NL East in what had become a two-team race with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Now, the Mets’ playoff chances appear to be hanging in the balance with less than two months left in the regular season.

New York has lost seven games in a row and nine of its last 10 to fall six games behind the Phillies in the division. As of Tuesday, Aug. 12, the Mets have just a two-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds and a three-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals for the final wild card spot in the National League.

As a result, oddsmakers have slowly been moving the Mets’ odds to make the playoffs down, although they remain favored to sew up at least a wild card spot by the end of the regular season. 

Mets Playoff Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• To Make the Playoffs: -290
• To Miss the Playoffs: +245

Based on these odds, the Mets have an implied probability of 74.36 percent to make the playoffs in the 2025 season. 

The two teams directly behind them in the standings – Cincinnati and St. Louis – are +400 (Cincy) and +550 (S. Louis) to make the postseason. So, it seems like Vegas expects the Mets to turn things around sooner rather than later.

Despite that, New York has now put itself in a tough position, as it is 3.5 games back of the No. 2 wild card spot and well behind the Phillies in the NL East standings. If the Mets end up as the No. 3 wild card, they’ll face a tough road in the postseason to get back to the NLCS.

New York’s offense is what has really fallen off as of late, ranking 27th in runs scored and dead last in OPS over the last 15 days. If that doesn’t turn around, the Mets are in serious danger of losing out a wild card spot.

On the bright side, both St. Louis and Cincinnati aren’t nearly as talented as the Mets, although the Reds did make some all-in trades at the deadline this season. For now, the Mets’ odds to make the playoffs signal that they’ll turn things around, but if their lead continues to dwindle, there’s certainly value in betting on the Reds or Cardinals if they remain 4/1 – or longer – to make the playoffs.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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