Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 29

The Mets are road favorites on Tuesday.

New York Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea is a solid prop target on July 29. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres snapped the New York Mets’ seven-game winning streak on Monday night, and now they’re set as slight underdogs at home on Tuesday in San Diego.

Ryan Bergert is on the mound for the Padres, as he’s posted a 2.84 ERA as both a reliever and starter in the 2025 season. The Padres will likely use a lot of their league-best bullpen since Bergert has yet to pitch past the fifth inning in a start this season.

New York counters with lefty Sean Manaea, who is making his fourth appearance (third start) of the 2025 season. Manaea pitched five innings and allowed just one run in his last outing, and he’s looking like the pitcher that was elite for the Mets down the stretch of the 2024 season.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this matchup between two playoff contenders in the National League. 

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line 

• Mets -1.5 (+134)
• Padres +1.5 (-126)

Moneyline

• Mets: -126
• Padres: +104

Total

• 8.5 (Over -102/Under -119)

Mets vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• New York: Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19 ERA)
• San Diego: Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.84 ERA)

Mets vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 29
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SDPA, SNY
• Mets record: 62-45
• Padres record: 58-49

Mets vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Sean Manaea OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

So far this season, Manaea has recorded at least five strikeouts in every game he’s pitched in, even though he threw just 3.1 innings in relief in his first outing and 4.0 innings in his first start of the season.

The Padres average less than eight K’s per game as a team, but Manaea has 18 strikeouts in just 12.1 innings, averaging nearly 1.5 per inning. After the Mets allowed him to throw 82 pitches in his last start, I think Manaea is in a great spot to clear this line on Tuesday. 

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m betting the under in the second game of this series: 

The New York Mets had their seven-game winning streak snapped on Monday night against the San Diego Padres, but they’ll aim to bounce back on Tuesday with lefty Sean Manaea making his fourth appearance of the 2025 season.

Manaea has been solid so far in 2025, posting a 2.19 ERA, allowing exactly one run in each of his three outings. He’ll take on San Diego’s Ryan Bergert (2.84 ERA), who has moved into a starter role for the Padres.

Bergert hasn’t been pitching deep into games, so the Mets should see a lot of the Padres’ bullpen, which has a 3.03 ERA this season – the best mark in MLB. 

I’m going to bet on the UNDER in this game, as the Padres have been a great UNDER team all season, going 60-44-3 (57.7 percent) to the UNDER in their games in 2025. On top of that, the Mets have hit the UNDER in 53.9 percent of their games this season.

Through three appearances, Manaea has kept opponents in check, and he should be able to handle a Padres lineup that ranks 25th in MLB in runs scored this season.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-119 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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