Mets vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, Sept. 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Mets-Cincinnati Reds matchup on Friday night.

New York Mets first base Pete Alonso is a solid prop target on Sept. 5. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The New York Mets are looking to lock up the final wild card spot in the National League – or better – over the final month of the regular season, and they’ll take on a team in the chasing pack, the Cincinnati Reds, on Friday night.

New York is set as a slight favorite on the road at the best betting sites, as David Peterson (3.61 ERA) takes on Andrew Abbott (2.65 ERA).

Both of these lefties have struggled as of late, which could be a reason why the total for this game is all the way up at nine runs. Plus, the Mets have been red hot on offense, scoring the most runs in MLB over the last 15 days.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Friday night’s contest. 

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+133)
• Reds +1.5 (-163)

Moneyline

• Mets: -120
• Reds: -102

Total

• 9 (Over -120/Under -101)

Mets vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (8-6, 3.61 ERA)
• Cincinnati: Andrew Abbott (8-5, 2.65 ERA)

Mets vs. Reds How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSOH, SNY
• Mets record: 75-65
• Reds record: 70-70

Mets vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110)

Over the last two weeks (13 games), Alonso is hitting .333 with five home runs, three doubles and 20 hits.

New York’s offense has been clicking on all cylinders, but the first baseman has really been red hot during this stretch, pushing his average to .357 over the last week. I love this prop for Alonso against a starter in Abbott that struggled to limit runs and baserunners in August. 

Abbott had a 4.45 ERA last month and allowed 28 hits in 30.1 innings of work. 

Mets vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Could we see a high-scoring affair on Friday?

I shared why I think that’s possible in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers: 

The Mets are five games up on the Reds in the NL wild card race, but New York still has some work to do to clinch a playoff spot this season.

On Friday, a pair of lefties – David Peterson and Andrew Abbott – are set to battle at Great American Ball Park, and I think we could be in line for a high-scoring affair.

Over the last 15 days, the Mets are hitting .321 as a team and rank No. 1 in the league in both batting average and runs scored. That’s pushed their OVER record to 66-66-8. Now, the Reds have the best UNDER record in MLB this season, but this pitching matchup could lead to a lot of runs being scored.

After strong starts to the 2025 season, both Peterson and Abbott have come back to earth as of late.

Peterson posted a 6.68 ERA in the month of August, leading the Mets to a 1-5 record in his starts. He allowed eight runs in just 2.0 innings of work in his last outing, and his ERA has jumped from 2.83 to 3.61 for the season.

As for Abbott, he has a similarly bad August, posting a 4.45 ERA in five starts, pushing his season-long ERA to 2.65. His expected ERA is now 3.52 while Peterson’s sits at 4.30.

With the New York offense on fire as of late, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game reach double-digit runs on Friday night. 

Pick: OVER 9 (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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