Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Mets-Reds, Dodgers-Orioles, Astros-Rangers)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Friday, Sept. 5, including a pick for the Dodgers-Orioles matchup.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are road favorites with starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow on the mound. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Looking to kick the weekend off with some MLB action?

Ahead of the college football action on Saturday and the NFL slate on Sunday, there are plenty of reasons to get caught up in the playoff race in baseball for Friday night’s action. 

I’m looking to matchups like the New York Mets-Cincinnati Reds game (two wild card contenders battling) and the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers matchup (which has major AL West implications) for some of the plays that stand out on Friday night.

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bets for the Sept. 5 slate. 

MLB Best Bets for Friday, Sept. 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• New York Mets-Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 (-118)
• Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-169) vs. Baltimore Orioles
• Houston Astros-Texas Rangers UNDER 7.5 (-125)

New York Mets-Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 (-118)

The Mets are five games up on the Reds in the NL wild card race, but New York still has some work to do to clinch a playoff spot this season.

On Friday, a pair of lefties – David Peterson and Andrew Abbott – are set to battle at Great American Ball Park, and I think we could be in line for a high-scoring affair.

Over the last 15 days, the Mets are hitting .321 as a team and rank No. 1 in the league in both batting average and runs scored. That’s pushed their OVER record to 66-66-8. Now, the Reds have the best UNDER record in MLB this season, but this pitching matchup could lead to a lot of runs being scored.

After strong starts to the 2025 season, both Peterson and Abbott have come back to earth as of late.

Peterson posted a 6.68 ERA in the month of August, leading the Mets to a 1-5 record in his starts. He allowed eight runs in just 2.0 innings of work in his last outing, and his ERA has jumped from 2.83 to 3.61 for the season.

As for Abbott, he has a similarly bad August, posting a 4.45 ERA in five starts, pushing his season-long ERA to 2.65. His expected ERA is now 3.52 while Peterson’s sits at 4.30.

With the New York offense on fire as of late, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game reach double-digit runs on Friday night. 

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-169) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers have a two-game lead in the NL West division, but they’re aiming to snap a three-game skid on Friday night.

Luckily for the Dodgers, they’ll take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 12 games under .500 – and six games under .500 at home – to begin their weekend series.

Baltimore has Dean Kremer on the mound, and he’s struggled in 2025, posting a 4.52 ERA while leading the O’s to just 10-17 mark in his outings. Kremer has given up 16 hits and 14 runs over his last two outings, which could be a major issue against a Dodgers offense that is third in MLB in runs scored and OPS.

As for Glasnow, he’s led L.A. to just a 6-8 record in his outings, but he’s put up a 3.41 ERA. Despite a 3.45 ERA in five August starts, Glasnow led the Dodgers to just a 1-4 record.

I think the righty’s luck will change against the last-place Orioles, especially since he’s allowed three or fewer runs in 12 of his 14 starts this season. 

Houston Astros-Texas Rangers UNDER 7.5 (-125)

A solid pitching matchup will take place in Texas on Friday night, as the Houston Astros aim to hold on to their lead in the AL West.

Houston is 3.5 games up on the Seattle Mariners and five games up on the Texas Rangers heading into this weekend series with the Rangers. Texas is just 1.5 games out of a wild card spot, and it’s looking to make a final playoff push in September.

In this matchup, Astros All-Star Hunter Brown (2.34 ERA) takes on Merrill Kelly (3.24 ERA). 

This season, the Rangers are one of the best UNDER teams in the league (77-62-2), as they’ve posted the No. 1 team ERA in MLB. Houston is 69-64-8 to the UNDER, and it’s just 22nd in MLB in runs scored in 2025. 

Brown hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last seven starts while Kelly has a 3.31 ERA in six starts since being dealt to Texas at the deadline.

With both of these teams ranking in the bottom half of the league in several offensive statistics, I think the UNDER is a great bet in this series opener on Friday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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