Mets vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Mets-Detroit Tigers matchup on Monday afternoon.

New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto is a great prop target on Monday. / John Jones-Imagn Images

The New York Mets and Detroit Tigers open their early-week series on Monday with an afternoon matchup.

For those sitting back and relaxing on Labor Day weekend, this is a perfect game to dive into early in the day when betting on baseball.

The Tigers are in first place in the AL Central and looking to extend their lead in the race for the best record in the American League while the Mets hold the final playoff spot in the National League (they’re four games up on the Cincinnati Reds entering Monday’s action).

New York has lefty Sean Manaea (5.01 ERA) on the mound as he aims to get into form ahead of the playoffs after missing the start of the 2025 season with an injury. The Tigers will counter with veteran Charlie Morton, who got off to an awful start this season in Baltimore but has rebounded nicely since joining Detroit.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday’s matchup. 

Mets vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+138)
• Tigers +1.5 (-168)

Moneyline

• Mets: -121
• Tigers: -101

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -119)

Mets vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• New York: Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.01 ERA)
• Detroit: Charlie Morton (9-10, 5.25 ERA)

Mets vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 1
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSDET, SNY
• Mets record: 73-64
• Tigers record: 80-58

Mets vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why this is an ideal matchup for Soto to leave the yard: 

The play of the day when it comes to home run props is for Soto, as the Mets star has completely dominated Charlie Morton in his MLB career.

Soto is 8-for-14 (.571) with three home runs and a 1.942 OPS against Morton in his career, yet he’s nearly 4/1 to leave the yard on Monday.

This season, Soto has homered 35 times, and he’s gotten hot as of late, hitting .333 with three homers over the last week (seven games). The Mets star has homered a whopping 10 times over his last 25 games while hitting .284.

Morton has turned his season around after a rough, rough start in Baltimore, but the Detroit Tigers starter still has given up 20 homers in 2025. 

I love Soto to leave the yard in this afternoon matchup. 

Mets vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

So far this season, Detroit is one of the best OVER teams in MLB (71-61-6), and I don’t expect that to change in this series opener.

After allowing one run or fewer in each of his July starts, Manaea struggled in August, posting a 7.13 ERA in five outings while giving up 28 hits in 24.0 innings of work. The Mets lefty has led the team to a 2-7 record in nine appearances in 2025, making him hard to trust on Monday.

As for Morton, he’s pitched better over the last few months but still has an ERA north of 5.00 in the 2025 season. The veteran right-hander has 14 outings in 2025 where he’s allowed at least three runs, and he posted a 4.61 ERA across five August outings.

That’s better than his season-long ERA, but it’s still very shaky.

These offenses are eighth (Detroit) and ninth (New York) in runs scored this season, so I love the OVER on Monday afternoon with these starters on the mound. 

Pick: OVER 9 (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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