Mets vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, May 18

The Yankees are favored with Max Fried on the mound on Sunday.

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Sunday. / John Froschauer-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees and New York Mets close out an awesome rivalry weekend in MLB with a standalone matchup on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Yankees took Game 1 of this series at home, but the Mets bounced back with a 3-2 win on Saturday to force a rubber match on Sunday night.

A pair of lefties will be on the mound in this one, as Yankees ace Max Fried will make his 10th start of the 2025 season against Mets southpaw David Peterson. Both of these pitchers have thrived in their outings, as the Yankees are 8-1 when Fried is on the mound and the Mets are 6-2 when Peterson pitches.

So, who has the edge on Sunday?

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this series finale. 

Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-142)
• Yankees -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline

• Mets: +140
• Yankees: -166

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -118)

Mets vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Mets: David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA) 
• Yankees: Max Fried (6-0, 1.11 ERA)

Mets vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 18
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Mets record: 29-17
• Yankees record: 26-19

Mets vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-130)

There hasn’t been a better hitter in 2025 than Aaron Judge, and I shared a prop play for him in today’s Painting Corners – SI Betting’s best MLB props column: 

This season, Judge is hitting an insane .402 with a .488 on-base percentage and a 1.241 OPS. 

The Yankees star leads all of baseball in hits (70), WAR (3.7), batting average (.402), on-base percentage (.488), slugging percentage (.753), OPS (1.241), OPS+ (247) and leads the American League in runs scored, home runs and runs batted in.

It’s one of the best starts to a season ever, and Judge has been a multi-hit machine in 2025. Plus, he has a whopping 29 extra-base hits.

That sets up well against Peterson, who has given up 44 hits in 44.1 innings pitched for the Mets this season. 

Judge has also crushed left-handed pitching, posting a slash line of .480/.606/1.280 (yes, you read that right) against them. His OPS against lefties is 1.886. 

He’s a must-bet nearly every night in this prop as long as he keeps hitting over .400. 

Mets vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

This game features one of my favorite bets of the day, as I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column why New York is worth a bet with Fried on the mound: 

The Yankees are heavily favored in this series finale with Max Fried on the mound, and for good reason.

This season, New York is 8-1 in Fried’s nine starts, although it did lose his last outing despite him giving up just one run through five frames. Overall, Fried has allowed just seven earned runs in nine outings, giving up just 40 hits in 56.2 innings of work.

That gives the Yanks a pretty sizable advantage over David Peterson, who has a 3.05 ERA for the Mets but enters this start with a 1.35 WHIP. According to Statcast, Peterson ranks in just the 33rd percentile in MLB in expected ERA.

Both of these teams are pretty elite on offense, but I can’t fade Fried at home. New York’s ace is 6-0 in games that he’s earned the decision in this season while Peterson is just 2-2. The Mets have won four more of Peterson’s starts, but I’m not sold on them having enough offense to do so on Sunday night. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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