Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Brewers vs. Padres, MacKenzie Gore)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Monday, Sept. 22, including a player prop for MacKenzie Gore.

Washington Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore is a great prop target on Monday. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The final week of the MLB regular season is upon us, and there is a ton at stake in the playoff picture entering Monday’s action — although it’s just a three-game slate.

In the AL, the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros are tied for the final wild card spot in the league. A similar situation is happening in the NL, as the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets are tied record wise after Cincy won on Sunday.

Plus, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just one game back of both teams entering Monday’s action.

With just three games on Monday, there isn’t much to bet on, but I still have a couple of plays that I’m eyeing for the slate.

Here’s a full breakdown of each best bet as the home stretch of the season is officially here. 

MLB Best Bets for Monday, Sept. 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Milwaukee Brewers-San Diego Padres First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-166)
• MacKenzie Gore OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Milwaukee Brewers-San Diego Padres First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-166)

The best pitching matchup of the day takes place in San Diego, as Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta (2.65 ERA) takes the mound against San Diego Padres righty Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA) as the Padres aim to lock up a playoff spot.

Pivetta has been lights out at home in the 2025 season, posting a 2.22 ERA while allowing opponents to hit just .170 against him. So, it makes sense that San Diego is a slight favorite in this matchup.

Still, I lean with the UNDER in the early innings in this game when both starters should be in.

Pivetta has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 25 of his 30 starts this season, and Peralta has been even better, allowing three or fewer runs in 27 of his 31 outings in 2025.

While we have to lay a little juice with this number at 4.5, bettors could also take it down to 3.5 for much better odds – you’re just giving up a run in the process.

Since the All-Star break, Peralta has allowed one or fewer runs in eight of his 10 starts. Meanwhile, Pivetta has a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts since the break.

I expect a pitcher’s duel in the early innings in this matchup.  

MacKenzie Gore OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Washington Nationals ace MacKenzie Gore has just a 5-14 record despite posting a 4.00 ERA and a 3.64 Fielding Independent Pitching this season.

I’m going to back the lefty in the prop market on Monday as he makes his second straight start against the Atlanta Braves. Back on Sept. 16, Gore spun 5.1 innings of two-hit ball, striking out five, in what ended up being a 5-0 loss for the Nationals.

Now, I’m trusting Gore to hit that strikeout number again on Monday. Gore is set a 4.5 K’s in this matchup, but the Braves rank 18th in MLB in strikeouts per game (8.44) this season. 

Gore ranks in the 82nd percentile amongst MLB pitchers in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage, and I expect him to reach five punchouts for the 22nd time this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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