Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Cubs-Pirates, Padres-Mets, Phillies-Dodgers)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Tuesday, Sept. 16, including a bet for the Phillies-Dodgers matchup.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. / James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

Tuesday’s MLB action features all 30 teams, including a doubleheader between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals to open the day.

There are several teams locking to steal a wild card spot across the league, including the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants, who are all two games back or less in the NL. 

With that in mind, what teams should we target for today’s MLB best bets? 

I’m focused on a great pitching matchup between Paul Skenes and Cade Horton for my first play of the day, but I also think there is a bet worth placing in the San Diego Padres-New York Mets series opener.

Here’s a breakdown of each play — and the latest odds — for Tuesday night. 

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 16

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Chicago Cubs-Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)
• San Diego Padres First 5 Innings Moneyline (-105) vs. New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies-Los Angeles Dodgers First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-160)

Chicago Cubs-Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)

Two of the best young pitchers in the National League face off on Tuesday evening, as Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates take on Horton and the Chicago Cubs.

Horton has been lights out since the All-Star break, posting a 0.84 ERA across 10 starts. He’s allowed just five earned runs and 28 hits in 53.1 innings of work, pushing his season-long ERA down to 2.70.

Overall, Horton has allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his 21 outings in the 2025 season. So, I love backing him to keep this game low-scoring early against a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored in 2025.

On the other side, Skenes has a 1.92 ERA for the entire 2025 season, allowing two or fewer runs in 25 of his 30 outings this season. Against the Cubs, Skenes has allowed just three runs in 10.0 innings (two starts) this season.

I’ll take the bullpens out of play in this matchup and expect a pair of shutdown outings from these young arms on Tuesday night. 

San Diego Padres First 5 Innings Moneyline (-105) vs. New York Mets

Michael King returned to the San Diego Padres rotation on Sept. 9, tossing five innings of three- hit, two-run ball against the Cincinnati Reds.

Now, King takes on a reeling New York Mets team that is in danger of falling out of the playoff picture in the National League. I think he’s the starter to trust in this matchup, as the Mets have Clay Holmes on the bump on Tuesday.

Holmes – a former reliever – may be showing some signs of fatigue down the stretch of the 2025 season. He has not pitched more than 4.2 innings in a start this month, and he’s only gotten through six innings one time since the beginning of July.

Since Aug. 1, Holmes has a 4.81 ERA in seven appearances, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 8.2 innings in September.

I lean with King to have the superior start on Tuesday, especially since the righty had a 2.59 ERA before going down with an injury in late May. 

Philadelphia Phillies-Los Angeles Dodgers First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-160)

The Philadelphia Phillies won a thriller in extra innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, and they’ll turn to lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2.57 ERA) for Game 2 of this series.

Sanchez will face Dodgers righty Shohei Ohtani, who has a 3.75 ERA this season and has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 12 outings in 2025.

While Ohtani (coming off Tommy John) has not pitched deep into games, he’s kept the majority of them low-scoring in the first few frames.

So, I’m targeting the UNDER in the first five innings of this matchup, as Sanchez has allowed one run or less in 15 of his 29 outings in 2025, including his last three.

The lefty has an impressive 2.67 ERA and 2.14 FIP since the All-Star break.

Even though these offenses combined for 11 runs in Game 1, I think there will be a little regression in the early innings with these starters on the mound.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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