Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova Prediction, Odds for US Open Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the US Open semifinal match between Naomi Osaka and Amanda Anisimova.

Naomi Osaka is a slight favorite in the US Open semifinals. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The stage is set for the semifinals of the US Open, as No. 23 Naomi Osaka – a former No. 1 player in the world – takes on No. 8 Amanda Anisimova with a trip to the final on Saturday on the line.

Osaka has turned back the clock in the US Open, making her first semifinal in a Grand Slam since she won the 2021 Australian Open. Meanwhile, Anisimova is in her first ever semifinal at the US Open after knocking off Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

That was a huge win for Anisimova, as she lost in straight sets (without winning a single game) to Swiatek in the Wimbledon Final earlier this year. Now, the American has a real chance to capture her first ever win at a Grand Slam. 

Oddsmakers have set Osaka as a slight favorite in this match, but it’s a true toss up between these two players. The winner will face either No. 1 Aryan Sabalenka or No. 4 Jessica Pegula in the final on Saturday.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction for this semifinal match. 

Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Naomi Osaka: -120
• Amanda Anisimova: -105

Total

• 22.5 (Over -105/Under -130)

Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 4
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Naomi Osaka: How Did They Get Here?

Osaka’s run at the US Open has been extremely impressive, and the two-time champion is showing why she was once the top-ranked women’s player in the world.

Osaka knocked off No. 11 Karolina Muchova in straight sets in the quarterfinals, her fourth win in five matches in straight sets. Muchova was the third top-15 player that Osaka beat in a row, and she knocked off No. 3 Coco Gauff in Round 4 in straight sets.

While Osaka has never beaten Anisimova in her career, they have only faced off twice (both in 2022). 

Oddsmakers seem to believe that Osaka has a slight edge on Thursday night. 

Amanda Anisimova: How Did They Get Here?

Defeating Swiatek in the quarterfinals had to be therapeutic for Anisimova after how her Wimbledon ended against the No. 2 player in the world. 

The American has dropped just one set in New York this year, and she’s lost just 10 total games in her last two matches (both against ranked opponents). Now, Anisimova will look to move to 3-0 against Osaka in her career.

Anisimova knocked Osaka out of both the Australian Open and French Open back in 2022. 

Naomi Osaka vs. Amanda Anisimova Prediction and Pick

Based on the latest odds – Osaka -120 – this is a true toss up on Thursday night. Osaka has an implied probability of just 54.55 percent to advance to the final despite being the favorite.

This is a really tough match to predict, because Anisimova has beaten Osaka twice in their respective careers, but both were several years ago. Osaka has looked like a different player in the 2025 US Open, making by far her best run at a Grand Slam in four years. 

Anisimova showed in the quarterfinals against Swiatek that she can handle adversity, dominating the same player that beat her handily in the Wimbledon Final.

Still, I have to mention Osaka’s dominance as well, as she’s beaten three consecutive top-15 players and only dropped 24 total games in the process.

While I lean with the former No. 1 overall player to win, I do think this match goes three sets – which would put the OVER in play.

These two players needed 32 games in their 2022 match at the Australian Open and 22 in their match at the French Open. If a third set comes into play, this match should go well OVER 22.5 games. 

Pick: OVER 22.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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