Nationals vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 29

Can the Nationals win a fourth game in a row on Tuesday?

Washington Nationals left fielder James Wood is a solid prop target on July 29. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images

The Washington Nationals have won three games in a row, upsetting the Houston Astros on Monday in their series opener.

On Tuesday night, Houston is set as a favorite at home, even though it has Jason Alexander (8.14 ERA) on the mound. Alexander hasn’t made a ton of starts this season, pitching just 21.0 innings in total in 2025.

He’ll be opposed by Washington’s Michael Soroka, who has actually pitched better than his numbers suggest in the 2025 season. Soroka has a 4.85 ERA, but Statcast has his expected ERA at just 3.27, which ranks in the 77th percentile amongst MLB pitchers.

Can he lead the Nats to a fourth straight win on Tuesday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for tonight’s interleague matchup. 

Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line 

• Nationals +1.5 (-175)
• Astros -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline

• Nationals: +119
• Astros: -145

Total

• 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Nationals vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Washington: Michael Soroka (3-8, 4.85 ERA)
• Houston: Jason Alexander (1-1, 8.14 ERA)

Nationals vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 29
• Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): SCHN, MASN2
• Nationals record: 44-62
• Astros record: 60-47

Nationals vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Nationals Best MLB Prop Bet

• James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why James Wood is a value bet at +400 in this market: 

Washington Nationals All-Star James Wood has been slumping since the break, hitting .114 over the last two weeks (nine games).

So, he’s seen his home run prop odds fall all the way to +400 ahead of Tuesday’s clash with the Houston Astros. I think this is a perfect spot to buy low, especially with Houston set to start Jason Alexander (8.14 ERA), who has given up four homers in seven appearances (21.0 innings) so far this season.

Wood has been great against right-handed pitching, posting an .866 OPS with 15 of his 24 home runs this season. While the youngster has struggled as of late, this is a great matchup for him to get on track against one of the worst pitchers on Houston’s staff. 

Usually, Wood is shorter than 3/1 to leave the yard, so his recent slump is giving us some value at +400 on Tuesday. 

Nationals vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Even though Soroka’s ERA likely should be lower than it is, I don’t trust the Nationals bullpen to keep this game in check once he exits.

So, I’m looking to the OVER on Tuesday night, as Washington (54-48-4) has one of the best OVER records in MLB.

Soroka has allowed three or more runs in nine of 15 starts this season, and the Nationals have struggled with him on the mound, going 3-12 straight up. Behind Soroka, Washington has a bullpen that ranks dead last in MLB in ERA (5.58). 

As for the Astros, Alexander is nearly impossible to trust based on his struggles in limited innings this season, and he allowed 11 hits and five runs in his last start. 

Houston has one of the top bullpens in MLB, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Nationals pick up a few runs against Alexander early to help push this game over the total on Tuesday night. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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