Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Spurs-Lakers, SGA, Devin Booker)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA Cup Quarterfinals on Wednesday, Dec. 10.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target on Wednesday. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Three of the top five teams in the Western Conference are in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals, making for an exciting slate on Dec. 10: 

• Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix is set as a massive underdog against the Thunder, who have lost just one game in the 2025-26 season. The Suns did lose by just four points against OKC earlier this season, and they could get Devin Booker (questionable) back on Wednesday night as he deals with a groin injury.

The Lakers and Spurs also played once this season, with L.A. winning by two at home. Victor Wembanayama (calf) remains out of the lineup in this matchup, although he appears to be closer to a return after practicing on Sunday.

The Lakers are rolling right now, jumping to the No. 2 seed in the West with LeBron James back in action and coming off his best showing of the season in a win over the Philadelphia 76ers. 

There are a few bets that I’m eyeing for this marquee matchups, including a player prop for Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the plays for these NBA Cup games on Dec. 10. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 82-66 (+0.39 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1373-1305-27 (+33.54 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Devin Booker UNDER 7.5 Assists (-149)
• San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-118) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-152)

Devin Booker UNDER 7.5 Assists (-149)

If Devin Booker does play through his groin issue, it's unclear if he'll handle a usual workload in this matchup, making him a tricky prop target on Wednesday. Still, I think he’s a player worth fading as a passer. 

The Suns guard enters this game averaging 25.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game, yet his assists prop is up at 7.5 against the No. 1 defense in the NBA. I think the UNDER on that line is worth a look in this NBA Cup clash.

This season, Booker is averaging 13.8 potential assists per game, but he's converting less than half of those into actual assists. On top of that, OKC has the No. 1 defensive rating and ranks No. 2 in the league in opponent assists per game, allowing just 23.9 per night.

Booker was held to six dimes in his first meeting with the Thunder, and he's picked up eight or more assists in just six of his 22 games. I think this line is way too high for the Suns guard, especially since Phoenix had a strong offensive showing (119 points) the first time it played OKC this season and Booker still finished short of this number.

San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-118) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The San Antonio Spurs have moved from 4.5-point underdogs to 6.5-point underdogs in this game with Victor Wembanyama out, but I think that line movement is a little bit of an overreaction.

Yes, Wemby is a special, special player, but the Spurs have fared pretty well without him as of late, going 8-3 straight up and improving to 5-3 against the spread as underdogs. 

San Antonio has a net rating of +2.1 over this 11-game stretch while posting the No. 7 offense in the NBA. The area where the Spurs have struggled is on defense without the star center’s rim protection. San Antonio is just 22nd in defensive rating during that stretch, but the Spurs have done enough on offense to still win eight games

I’m not sure they’ll pull off an upset against a solid Lakers team in this matchup, but L.A. has had defensive issues of its own, ranking 21st in the league in defensive rating for the entire season. 

The Lakers are 8-4 against the spread as favorites, but they’ve only posted an average scoring margin of +5.1 points in those games. They knocked off the Spurs by just two points at home earlier this season, and I wouldn't be shocked to see this game within two possessions on Wednesday night.

Let’s take advantage of the few extra points we’re getting with Wemby set to miss a 12th game in a row.  

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-152)

Oklahoma City star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30 or more points in 19 of his 23 appearances this season, including a 37-point game (on just 20 shots) against the Suns.

In fact, SGA has at least 23 points in every game, and he’s attempting 19.4 shots per game while averaging 32.8 points per night. The reigning league MVP is actually attempting less shots than he did in the 2024-25 season, but he’s been even more efficient from the field, shooting 55.6 percent overall. He’s also pushed his 3-point percentage all the way up to 44.3 percent on 5.0 attempts per game. 

Simply put, Gilgeous-Alexander is the best scorer in the NBA, and he’s worth a look in this market with his points prop set at 31.5. I’ve lowered it slightly to 30 or more points, as the Suns are a top-12 team in the league in defensive rating.

Still, Gilgeous-Alexander torched them late last month and has 31 or more points in seven of his last eight games. Even though he’s sat out a ton of fourth quarters because of the Thunder winning games in blowouts, he’s still found a way to hit this line in well over 75 percent of his games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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