NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Has Slight Edge Over Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NBA MVP in the 2025-26 season.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP favorite. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The 2025-26 NBA season is nearing the one-third mark, and that’s a perfect time to reset the odds to win the NBA MVP.

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets entered the season as the favorite to win the MVP for the fourth time in his career, but he’s since fallen behind reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the odds.

The two players were tied in this market earlier in December, but with the Thunder off to a 24-2 start, SGA has taken over as the favorite at +125.

As expected, this award race has turned into a three-player battle. Only SGA, Jokic and Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic are set as shorter than 55/1 to win the MVP, and it’s highly unlikely that anyone will be able to crack into this top three without an insane team record this season.

With the NBA on pause on Dec. 16 with only one game – the NBA Cup Championship – in action, here’s a look at each contender’s case to win the MVP this season. 

NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +125
• Nikola Jokic: +170
• Luka Doncic: +320
• Cade Cunningham: +5500
• Victor Wembanyama: +8000
• Jalen Brunson: +15000
• Tyrese Maxey: +15000
• Donovan Mitchell: +30000
• Anthony Edwards: +40000
• Jaylen Brown: +50000

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+125)

Can anyone catch SGA in the MVP race?

While Jokic and Doncic are putting up crazy numbers this season, Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder have a chance to break the regular season wins record (they’re currently 24-2), which would make it nearly impossible to hand the MVP to another player this season.

So far this season, SGA is averaging 32.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game while shooting 56.0 percent from the field and 43.7 percent from 3-point range. He’s nearly as many points per game (32.4) as minutes per game (33.2) this season, and the Thunder are a whopping +20.6 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. 

A 68-win season in the 2024-25 campaign was one of the driving forces behind Shai’s MVP case, and if he leads OKC to 74 or more wins, it’s likely going to lock up this award for him in the process. 

Nikola Jokic (+170)

After averaging a triple-double last season and failing to win the MVP, Jokic has come back with yet another insane statistical season to open the 2025-26 campaign.

The Denver Nuggets star is averaging 29.8 points, 12.4 rebounds and 10.8 assists per game while shooting 61.3 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from beyond the arc. Jokic is also shooting a ridiculous 68.7 percent from 2-point range this season.

He’s still an on/off splits specialist, as the Nuggets are +12.5 points per 100 possessions while he’s on the court, but they’ve been much better this season when he’s off the floor than in previous years. I don’t think that diminishes Jokic’s MVP case, but he went from Denver being -8.5 points per 100 possessions when he was off the floor last season to +1.4 points per 100 possessions this season. 

The Nuggets are on a solid pace wins wise (they’re 19-6 this season), but the question will be whether or not they win enough to challenge OKC in the standings. If they do, Jokic is going to have a serious case since he’s likely going to average a triple-double once again.   

Luka Doncic (+320)

The Los Angeles Lakers are the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, and Luka Doncic is a major reason why. He’s averaging 34.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game this season, leading L.A. to a 18-7 start.

While Doncic is going to have a tough time leading the Lakers into contention with the Thunder, his offensive load on a nightly basis may be the biggest in the NBA. He leads the league in usage rate (38.0), and the Lakers are in the bottom half of the league in defense, meaning they need everything from Doncic on a nightly basis to win.

If the Thunder cool off, I think there will be a better argument for Doncic – who was one of my preseason picks in this market – but the Lakers (14th in net rating) don’t profile as a team that is going to finish the regular season in the top three in the West. 

Historically, that’s a major issue, as since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed in their respective conference.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.