NFL Best Bets for AFC and NFC Championship Games (Predictions for Bills vs. Chiefs, Commanders vs. Eagles)

The Sports Illustrated Betting team shares their favorite bets on the board for the AFC and NFC title games in the NFL playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is looking to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line on Sunday, as the Washington Commanders face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC championship game and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game.

Kansas City is looking to make a third straight Super Bowl appearance to have a chance to complete a three-peat -- something no team in NFL history has ever done. Meanwhile, the Bills and Josh Allen are looking to snap a 0-3 record against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.

In the NFC, the Commanders are road underdogs against the Eagles as they look to continue their Cinderella run through the playoffs. Washington has won back-to-back games outright as a road underdog, but the Eagles have gone a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.

So, which of those trends finally will give this week?

The SI Betting team has you covered with our best bets -- both happen to be on a side -- for championship weekend.

NFL Championship Weekend Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-115) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan
• Washington Commanders +6 (-108) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Peter Dewey

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. I have bet against the Chiefs in the playoffs way too many times the past few years and it’s time for me to recognize the error of my ways. If you can’t beat them, join them.

Not only do the Chiefs play their best in the postseason, but I have a ton of concerns regarding the Bills defense. They have trended in the wrong direction in the second half of the season including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate since Week 10. Even last week, they allowed 7.3 yards per play to the Ravens but managed to force three turnovers which was enough to get them the win.

Now, they face a Chiefs team that simply doesn’t turn the ball over in big spots. If they give up 7.3 yards per play to Patrick Mahomes, the Bills stand no chance.

I’ll take the Chiefs to win and cover the short spread.

Washington Commanders +6 (-108) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Peter Dewey

This week, I was bold in our NFL Upset Picks here at SI Betting – taking the Washington Commanders to beat the Philadelphia Eagles. 

While oddsmakers don’t think that is likely, setting the Commanders at +800 to win the Super Bowl and +230 to win this game, I do think Washington keeps this game close. 

Washington has already won outright as an underdog twice in this postseason, moving to 4-2-1 against the spread as road dogs in the 2024 season. The Commanders have also kept both matchups against Philly within one possession, winning one of them. 

On paper, the Eagles are the better team in teams of EPA/Play and net yards per play, with Washington’s run defense (30th in yards per carry) standing out as a major red flag.

But, these offenses have looked a lot different in the layoffs. While Philly has relied extremely heavily on Saquon Barkley, the Commanders have gotten contributions up and down their roster – led by rookie Jayden Daniels. 

I’m also worried about Jalen Hurts, who injured his knee in the divisional round and may not be as mobile as normal in this game. 

After opening at Commanders +4.5, this line has moved all the way to Commanders +6. That’s just too many points for a third matchup between division rivals – especially with Washington peaking at the right time. 

The Commanders have won seven games in a row. They can cover on Sunday.

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