NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Set as Major Favorite Ahead of Week 16

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year award in the 2025 season.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favorite to win the OPOY award. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

There is an overwhelming favorite in the odds to win the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award with just three games to go in the regular season.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will be in action on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams, has moved to a -475 favorite ahead of that matchup.

JSN is having a career year, catching 96 of his 130 targets for an NFL-high 1,541 yards and nine touchdowns. While a 2,000-yard season may be out of reach for JSN, he’s helped the Seahawks to an 11-3 start, and could further that case on Thursday night.

If the Seahawks beat the Rams on Thursday (at home), they’ll take sole possession of the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the NFC West division. Earlier this season, JSN had nine grabs for 105 yards in a loss to the Rams. 

Outside of Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Taylor is the only player listed as shorter than 10/1 in the latest odds to win the Offensive Player of the Year. These odds could move quite a bit over the last few weeks, but JSN has an implied probability of 82.61 percent (based on these odds) to take home the award.

Here’s a look at the full odds list, JSN’s case and my favorite dark horse in this market. 

2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: -475
• Jonathan Taylor: +650
• Christian McCaffrey: +1500
• Puka Nacua: +1500
• Jahmyr Gibbs: +1500
• Josh Allen: +10000
• George Pickens: +15000
• Drake Maye: +15000
• Matthew Stafford: +15000
• De’Von Achane: +20000
• Bijan Robinson: +20000
• James Cook: +20000
• Davante Adams: +25000
• Ja’Marr Chase: +30000

JSN Heavily Favored to Win OPOY

It’s hard to poke any holes in Smith-Njigba’s OPOY case, especially since the Seahawks are also one of the best teams in the NFL. Seattle is currently No. 2 in the league in the odds to win the Super Bowl, and Smith-Njigba is a long shot candidate to win MVP.

The former first-round pick has nine games with at least 100 receiving yards this season, and he only has one game (a blowout win over Minnesota) where he failed to clear 75 receiving yards. 

Unless the wideout’s production falls off a cliff over the last three weeks, he’s in a great spot to take home this award. To show how big of a leap JSN has made, I took a look at his career-highs (all from last season) compared to his first 14 games this season:

Receptions

• Career-high (2024): 100
• This season (14 games): 96

Receiving Yards

• Career-high (2024): 1,130
• This season (14 games): 1,541

Touchdowns 

• Career-high (2024): 6
• This season (14 games): 9

Christian McCaffrey Undervalued in OPOY Conversation? 

If there is a player to consider outside of JSN in this market, it’s San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

The veteran running back has carried a San Francisco offense that has lost Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle and Brock Purdy for stretches this season and lost Brandon Aiyuk for the entirety of the 2025 campaign. 

CMC is a dual threat out of the backfield, rushing for 922 yards so far this season while also reeling in 86 passes for 820 yards. He has a chance to break 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the 2025 campaign, and he’s already scored 14 total touchdowns.

The only knock on McCaffrey is his efficiency as a runner, as he’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry in 2025. 

Still, with the 49ers in play to win the NFC West over the last few weeks of the season, McCaffrey could end up moving up in the odds in this market if he finishes strong. He needs just 78 rushing yards and 180 receiving yards over three games to complete a 1,000-1,000 season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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