NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Prop Bets for Week 6 (How to Bet on Patrick Mahomes)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 10, 2025

Bet on Patrick Mahomes to complete a long reception on Sunday Night Football. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We took a step back in the Week 5 edition of the Player Prop Countdown, going 4-6 for -2.73 units. That brings my season-to-date record at an even 25-25, but -2.78 units. On my top prop bet, I'm 4-1 and up 2.2 units.

The good news is we have plenty of football left this season and we're one good week away from being back in the green for the season overall. It's time to dive into my top 10 player props for Week 6 of the 2025 NFL campaign.

Best NFL Week 6 Prop Bets

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Mac Jones OVER 246.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-1 on the season, but they've quietly struggled in the secondary. They head into this weekend's games ranking 31st in the NFL in opponent dropback EPA, with only the Dolphins ranking worse. They also give up 6.8 yards per throw, one of the worst marks in the NFL. It's also worth noting that Mac Jones has thrown for 279+ passing yards in all three of his starts so far this season.

9) Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Chiefs' biggest issue defensively has been their inability to stop the run. They rank 29th in opponent rush success rate and 31st in opponent rush EPA. On top of that, they've given up 4.8 yards per rush. The Lions would be smart to run the ball in an attempt to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible on Sunday Night Football. All of that could lead to Gibbs soaring over 70.5 rushing yards.

8) Chris Olave OVER 6.5 Receptions (-118)

Chris Olave is the second-most-targeted receiver in the NFL with 54 targets through the first five weeks. He has only hauled in 33 of those targets, but if he continues to get targeted, the receptions are going to come sooner rather than later.

7) Breece Hall Touchdown (+170)

The New York Jets running back, Breece Hall, has somehow yet to score a touchdown despite averaging 100 rushing and receiving yards per game. It’s time to buy low on his touchdown odds. The Jets would be smart to utilize him as much as they can against a strong Broncos secondary, especially considering the Broncos are 14th in opponent rush success rate.

6) Travis Etienne OVER 2.5 Receptions (-102)

The Seahawks have allowed the most receptions to running backs this season. That could lead to a big game through the air for Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, who has hauled in 2+ receptions in three of his five games this season. He had three receptions against the Chiefs on Monday night.

5) Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-166)

The Chargers' secondary has been fantastic this season, giving up just 0.8 passing touchdowns per game while ranking second in opponent dropback success rate. The Dolphins' passing attack has been hurt with Tyreek Hill being out for the season. Miami would be smart to stick to the ground game in this one.

4) Jake Ferguson OVER 44.5 Receiving yards (-110)

The market still hasn’t corrected itself when it comes to Jake Ferguson, who has the second most receptions per game with 41, while averaging 54.4 receiving yards per game, well above his set total for this game. Now, he gets to face a Panthers team that has allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends this season. I hit the OVER on his receptions as my top prop last week. Let's keep it rolling.

3) Dalton Kincaid UNDER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Falcons’ defense has been fantastic defending against tight ends, allowing the fewest receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. This is a bit of a sell-high week on Kincaid after he went for 108 yards last week, which was the first time in his career he went over 100 yards. This could be a quiet night for the Bills' tight end.

2) Jaylen Warren UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Browns' run defense is one of the best in the NFL. They rank second in opponent rush EPA, third in opponent rush success rate, and they allow the fewest opponent yards per carry (3.0). Warren is averaging just 44.0 yards per game this season, so let's fade him in this spot with his total set at 46.5.

1) Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion OVER 36.5 Yards (-112)

Patrick Mahomes has had a completion of at least 33 yards in all five starts this season, including reaching 37+ yards in three of those four starts. Now, he gets to take on a Lions' defense that has an extremely banged-up secondary. The list of secondary injuries they have includes: Brian Branch questionable, Kerby Joseph questionable, Khalil Dorsey IR, Terrion Arnold, Out, D.J. Reed, IR, Daniel Thomas, IR. That should lead to Mahomes completing a couple of deep throws on Sunday Night Football.

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