NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 Prop Bets for Week 16 (Backing Gardner Minshew vs. Titans)

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

Bet on Gardner Minshew to go over his passing yards total against the Titans in Week 16. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The final whistle on the 2025 NFL season will be blown before we know it so we have to take advantage of the final few weeks as fans and bettors. One of the ways we can do that is by getting in on the player prop market for the Week 16 slate.

In this article, I'm going to break down my top 10 prop bets for this week's action. I went just 3-7 with my top 10 props in Week 15, but I did manage to cash in on my No. 2 and No. 1 ranked plays. Let's see if I can improve on that mark in Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Prop Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Stefon Diggs UNDER 3.5 Receptions (+120)

Stefon Diggs’ usage has gone down in recent weeks. He has played 50% of snaps or fewer in three straight games for the Patriots, and hasn't had a game with more than four targets or more than three receptions in that stretch. Now he faces a Ravens defense that’s third in opponent dropback success rate since Week 8. That could lead to Diggs having yet another quiet outing.

9) Joe Burrow OVER 24.5 Completions (-106)

The Dolphins give up the highest opponent completion percentage in the NFL. Teams are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.91% of passes against them. I expect Burrow to come out firing after last week’s shutout loss. Has had 36 or more pass attempts each game since returning from injury, giving him plenty of opportunities to reach at least 25 completions on Sunday.

8) Kirk Cousins OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

Kirk Cousins found his stride last week, throwing for 373 yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers. He has now thrown for 2+ touchdowns in two of his previous four games, and he should be helped further with Drake London expected to return to the lineup on Sunday. The Cardinals' secondary ranks 31st in the NFL in opponent dropback success rate since Week 8.

7) Cam Little OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (-126)

The Broncos have the best red zone defense in football, keeping teams from scoring a touchdown on just 38.46% of red zone trips against them, which is 7% better than the next best team. That could lead to the Jaguars leaning on their kicker, Cam Little. He has 8+ kicking points in eight of his 14 games this season.

6) Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+112)

Amongst all quarterbacks who will start this weekend, Caleb Williams has the highest bad throw percentage, with 22.4% of his throws being considered "bad". He has only thrown six interceptions this season, but he has thrown two in his last three games, including one against the Packers two weeks ago. I love that we can bet on him throwing another one at plus-money.

5) Philip Rivers OVER 154.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Give credit to Philip Rivers, who looked efficient against arguably the best defense in the NFL last week, throwing for 120 yards on 18 completions. Now, he gets to take on a 49ers defense that has allowed a ton of yards through the air this season. The 49ers have allowed 227.6 passing yards per game, and they rank 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 8. I’m all in on old man Rivers this week, and I think he’ll surprise some people with his play.

4) Jayden Reed Anytime Touchdown (+195)

In his two games since returning from injury, Jayden Reed has seen 10 targets, hauling in nine of those targets for 86 yards. He hasn't found the end zone in those two games, but he's arguably become the Packers' primary receiver since returning, so it may be only a matter of time before he scores for the first time since Week 1 against the Lions.

3) Jalen Hurts Longest Pass Completion OVER 35.5 Yards (-114)

The Commanders' defense is susceptible to big plays through the air. They have allowed 46 passes of 20+ yards this season and 12 passes of 40+ yards, which is the most in the NFL. That could line up well for Jalen Hurts to have a big game and complete a few explosive passes down the field. 

2) Justin Herbert OVER 247.5 Passing Yards (-114)

It’s time for Justin Herbert to have a breakout performance. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards per game this season at 254.8 and are 29th in opponent dropback EPA. Teams have torched the Cowboys’ secondary, and now it’s Herbert’s turn. He hasn’t thrown for many yards over the past handful of weeks, but now’s the time to buy low on his passing yards number and bank on him having a big performance.

1) Gardner Minshew OVER 212.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Titans have allowed 233 passing yards per game, ranking 28th in the NFL in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate. The rest of the Chiefs’ offense is healthy, so Gardner Minshew has a plethora of weapons to lean on in the passing game. Let’s not forget this guy is a gunslinger. In his most recent start, he threw for 230 yards, and in his start before that, he threw for 282 yards. If Shedeur Sanders can throw for 350+ yards against this Titans defense, Minshew can certainly reach 213 yards on Sunday.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!