NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 9 (Bet Cardinals to Win on Monday Night Football vs. Cowboys)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 30, 2025

The Cardinals are underdogs against the Cowboys in Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season. / Kyler: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images, Dak: Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins were the only two teams to pull off upset wins last week. Thankfully, Iain MacMillan gave out the Jets at +245 on FanDuel to take down the Bengals in last week's edition of the SI Upset Pick Roundtable.

We move on to Week 10 and hopefully there will be more underdog winners this time around. Let's take a look at the SI Team's top upset picks for this week's slate of games.

• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• Conor Orr, Senior Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Gilberto Manzano Week 9 Upset Pick

Washington Commanders (+144) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Honestly, it was difficult to find a quality underdog to back this week. But I’ll roll the dice on a desperate Commanders team that might get back Jayden Daniels for a home game against the red-hot Seahawks. Do yourself a favor and avoid this pick if Marcus Mariota starts again in place of Daniels. But if Daniels is back, the Commanders have the rushing attack to keep Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the sideline for long stretches.

Matt Verderame Week 9 Upset Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (+136) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers aren’t as good as the Colts. They shouldn’t win this game. But they’ve lost two straight, they’re at home, and Pittsburgh is going to be far more desperate than Indianapolis, which comes into Week 9 with a healthy 2.5-game lead in the AFC South.

The big question is whether the Steelers can hold up at all against the Colts. Pittsburgh’s defense has been a mess, ranking 30th, only ahead of the Cowboys and Bengals. Indianapolis, meanwhile, leads the NFL in yards and points per game.

For Aaron Rodgers and Co. to win, they’ll need to score plenty and get a few key defensive stops.

Conor Orr Week 9 Upset Pick

Arizona Cardinals (+130) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Kyler Murray is undefeated at JerryWorld, and the Cardinals have been surprisingly competitive in every contest this year. Dallas’s perforated defense is going to face a difficult challenge from a Cardinals offense that seemed to be getting closer to full strength before Murray went down with an injury.

Iain MacMillan Week 9 Upset Pick

Atlanta Falcons (+198) vs. New England Patriots

At this point in the season, we sort of know what we're going to get from the Falcons. In games you think they should win, they'll lose. In games you think they'll lose, they'll be competitive. This is the ultimate buy-low spot after losing to both the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins. Hopefully, Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London will be healthy for this game. If they are, they could give the Patriots a scare.

The Patriots' underlying metrics are concerning. Their defense is 28th in the NFL in DVOA and 19th in opponent success rate. They're going to get exposed sooner or later, and if the "good" version of the Falcons offense shows up on Sunday, this could be the week that it does. I'll take a shot on Atlanta as a 2-1 underdog.

Peter Dewey Week 9 Upset Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (+130) vs. Chicago Bears

Cincinnati is coming off a brutal loss to the New York Jets in Week 8, and this matchup feels like a must-win if the Bengals want to be in the mix in a wide-open AFC North.

Cincy has looked better offensively with Joe Flacco under center, but the defense was destroyed by the Jets on Sunday. Still, I’m not sold on the Bears taking advantage after they struggled against the weak Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 8.

Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the league in EPA/Play on defense, and Caleb Williams is just 3-9 on the road in his NFL career. I’m not sold on Chicago’s start to the 2025 season, as the team’s four-game win streak came against four teams that are all out of the playoff mix and feature subpar defenses.

Flacco and the Bengals are worth a look as home underdogs on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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