Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for US Open Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz match in the US Open semifinal.

Carlos Alcaraz is favored to advance to the US Open final. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Carlos Alcaraz is looking to make his third consecutive Grand Slam final as he takes on four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic in the semifinals on Friday.

Djokovic and Alcaraz have faced off eight times in their careers, with the Serbian winning five of those matches. However, they have only faced off once in 2025 where Djokovic knocked Alcaraz out in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open.

Oddsmakers have set Alcaraz as a pretty sizable favorite in this match, as he looks to win his first US Open title since 2022. Alcaraz made the semis in 2023, but he was a second-round exit in 2024.

Meanwhile, Djokovic has been knocked out in the semifinals in each of the Grand Slam events this year (the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon). Can he finally get back to a final?

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the semifinals and my prediciton for this match. 

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Novak Djokovic: +290
• Carlos Alcaraz: -380

Total

• 37.5 (Over -115/Under -120)

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Time: TBA
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN?ESPN+

Novak Djokovic: How Did They Get Here?

Djokovic defeated No. 4 Taylor Fritz in four sets in the quarterfinals to advance to the semis against Alcaraz. 

The four-time US Open champion has bounced back in a big way from a third-round exit in last year’s event, dropping just three sets through his first five matches in 2025. He has won his last two meetings with Alcaraz, but the No. 2 player in the world does come into this match playing at a high level.

Djokovic is 5-3 all time against Alcaraz, including a 3-0 record on hard surfaces. 

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here?

Alcaraz has not dropped a set at the 2025 US Open, and he beat No. 20 Jiri Lehecka in the quarterfinals, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 to get back to the US Open semis.

Alcaraz has not faced Djokovic at the US Open before, and his last win against arguably the greatest men’s tennis player of all time came in the Wimbledon Final back in 2024.

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds for this match – Alcaraz -380 – the No. 2 player in the world has an implied probability of 79.17 percent to advance to the final. 

Alcaraz deserves to be the favorite in this match considering how well he’s played in 2025, but I find it hard to discount Djokovic knowing that he’s been in these pressure spots hundreds of times in his career.

The Serbian has dominated Alcaraz on hard surfaces in his career, and he has won the last two meetings between the two, including a win at a Grand Slam in 2025.

Alcaraz has yet to drop a set in the 2025 US Open, but I believe that will change on Friday. Their match at the Australian Open went 39 games, and only one of their matches at a Grand Slam (out of four) went less than four sets – the 2024 Wimbledon Final. 

I expect that the winner of this match will have to grind through at least four sets  – and over 37.5 games – to advance to the final. 

Pick: OVER 37.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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