Nuggets vs. Kings Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Dec. 11

Denver is an impressive 11-2 on the road this season.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Thursday. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are looking to avenge a loss to the Sacramento Kings back on Nov. 22 when these teams face off for the fourth and final time this season on Thursday night.

Sacramento is off to a brutal start in the 2025-26 season, winning just six of its first 18 games, and it’s recently been without center Domantas Sabonis due to a knee injury. The All-Star big man is listed as out for Thursday’s matchup against the Nuggets.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are one of the top teams in the Western Conference at 17-6 and have wins by six and 14 points against the Kings this season before losing by five in their last meeting. Denver’s 14-point win came in their lone matchup in Sacramento, and it currently is 11-2 straight up on the road.

Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun remain out for the Nuggets, but Jamal Murray, who had a 52-point game against Indiana last week, is playing at an All-Star level alongside Jokic.

Can the Nuggets cover as major road favorites on Thursday?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Nuggets vs. Kings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets -10.5 (-102)
• Kings +10.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: -485
• Kings: +370

Total

• 249.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Kings How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 11
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Golden 1 Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports California, Altitude
• Nuggets record: 17-6
• Kings record: 6-18

Nuggets vs. Kings Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Aaron Gordon – out
• Tamar Bates – out
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Christian Braun – out
• Julian Strawther – out

Kings Injury Report

• Dylan Cardwell – out
• Domantas Sabonis – out
• Zach LaVine – out
• Daeqwon Plowden – out
• Dennis Schroder – doubtful
• Isaiah Stevens – out

Nuggets vs. Kings Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is a great prop target against this Kings defense: 

Nikola Jokic has torched the Kings in his three meetings so far this season: 

• Nov. 3: 34 points (14-of-22 FG, 4-for-10 3P)
• Nov. 11: 35 points (16-of-19 FG, 1-for-2 3P)
• Nov. 22: 44 points (16-of-28 FG, 3-for-6 3P)

The Kings have not had an answer for Jokic, and now they’re down Domantas Sabonis on Thursday night. This season, the three-time league MVP is averaging 29.2 points per game while shooting 61.2 percent from the field and 41.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Jokic has made 66.7 percent of his field goal attempts against the Kings this season, who rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating and 26th in opponent points per game. If Denver doesn’t run away with this game too early, Jokic should handle a huge offensive load on Thursday night. 

Nuggets vs. Kings Prediction and Pick

Denver knocked off the Kings by 14 in their first matchup in Sacramento this season, and the Nuggets have posted one of the best road records in the NBA (11-2) this season. On top of that, Denver is 8-5 against the spread on the road, posting an average scoring margin of +8.2 in those games.

The Kings are extremely short-handed on Thursday with LaVine, Sabonis and likely Schroder all expected to sit. So, how are they going to compete with the No. 1 offense in the NBA?

The answer: They won’t.

The Kings had to score 128 points to upset the Nuggets earlier this season, and they’re going to struggle to put up that many points with two of their leading scorers sidelined. I am bullish on this Denver team off a ton of rest, as Murray and Jokic are both playing at an All-Star level this season.

Denver should be able to cover against a Kings team that is just 2-8 against the spread at home this season. 

Pick: Nuggets -10.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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