Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, January 18th

Reed Wallach | Jan 17, 2025

Jan 11, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (12) handles the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

In-state rivals meet on Saturday night in Starkville as Ole Miss will look to follow up a resounding win at Alabama with a win at Mississippi State. 

The Bulldogs are in need of a win after a pair of disheartening losses over the last week to Kentucky and Auburn and would love to pick one up against a heated rival. Both teams are trending towards making the NCAA Tournament and can get some bragging rights on the other on Saturday night. 

Ole Miss is the considerable underdog on Saturday night, but what is the best bet on the board? 

Here’s our best take on it. 

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ole Miss: +5.5 (-105)
• Mississippi State: -5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Ole Miss: +164
• Mississippi State: -200

Total: 145.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 18th
• Game Time: 6:00 PM EST
• Venue: United Humphrey Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Arizona Record: 15-2
• Mississippi State Record: 14-3

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch 

Ole Miss

Malik Dia: The Belmont transfer had his best game of the season, shooting 11-for-21 en route to 23 points and 19 rebounds against Alabama in the Rebels best win of the Chris Beard era. Dia has been playing at an incredibly high level since the start of SEC play and it paid off on the road on Tuesday, can he follow it up on Saturday?

Mississippi State

Josh Hubbard: The sophomore guard is mired in a shooting slump from the perimeter in SEC play, shooting only 30% from the field after shooting north of 36% in non conference play, but he has upped his free throw rate as the physicality ratchets up in the toughest league in the country this season. Overall, Hubbard is averaging 17 points per game on improved efficiency marks. 

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

The betting market has shaded towards the home favorite Bulldogs on the premise of the team being in line for a win after two losses in a row to strong competition and Ole Miss off of an upset as double digit underdogs. 

However, I prefer the under in this one as each defense can limit the opposition. 

Mississippi State hangs its hat on defense, but due to a difficult stretch of elite offenses, the team’s SEC metrics are a bit skewed negatively. However, the Bulldogs defense is strong on the interior, coaxing teams into jump shots at a 53% clip, one of the highest in the nation. 

Ole MIss is an elite ball handling group, but not a high level shooting team, 112th in effective field goal percentage. On the heels of a big shotmaking night against Alabama, I believe we see a step back from the Rebels on the road against a physical defense. 

Meanwhile, the Rebels run a ‘no-middle’ defense that will force Mississippi State into isolation situations. With Hubbard in a bit of a slump, and the offense not overly efficient overall, 86th in effective field goal percentage and 238th in free throw rate, I don’t trust this Bulldogs offense to put up a ton of points. 

I believe this game has far fewer possessions with two strong ball handling groups and defenses that do a good job of denying first actions, with a ton of missed jump shots leading to the under. 

PICK: UNDER 145.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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