Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 21

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Baltimore Orioles-Cleveland Guardians matchup on July 21.

Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez is a great prop target on Monday. / David Richard-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Guardians have won eight of their last 10 games and are making a push for a wild card spot in the American League entering their early-week series with the Baltimore Orioles. 

The O’s are in last place in the AL East and will need a massive second-half run to make the playoffs, as they are currently 13.5 games back of the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays.

On Monday, the O’s will turn to Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound, as he looks to shake off what has been a rough couple of months. Sugano’s ERA has soared to 4.44 this season, and he’s allowed a ton of home runs as well.

Cleveland will counter with Tanner Bibee (4.29 ERA), who has not fared as well as he did in the 2024 season. 

Sugano’s home-run issues are something to keep in mind for my favorite prop in this game, but first let’s dive into the odds for Monday’s series opener. 

Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Orioles +1.5 (-187)
• Guardians -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Orioles: +113
• Guardians: -137

Total

• 8.5 (Over -102/Under -119)

Orioles vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Tomoyuki Sugano (7-5, 4.44 ERA)
• Cleveland: Tanner Bibee (5-9, 4.29 ERA)

Orioles vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 21
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): CLEG, MASN2
• Orioles record: 44-54
• Guardians record: 48-50

Orioles vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why I’m trusting Jose Ramirez to go deep in a pretty favorable matchup: 

Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez has a great matchup on Monday night against the Baltimore Orioles and right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. 

Sugano has a 4.44 ERA in his first season in MLB, and he’s struggled mightily with the long ball, allowing 19 home runs in 18 starts. Since June 1, Sugano has a 6.62 ERA in seven starts, allowing eight homers.

That sets up well for Ramirez, who has hit 15 of his 19 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. While the Guardians star is hitting .273 against right-handed pitching and .342 against left-handed pitching, he still has a strong .855 OPS against righties. 

Since the All-Star break, Ramirez is 3-for-10 with a home run, a double and two runs batted in. 

Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

While Bibee has not had a strong 2025 season, he is the superior pitcher in this matchup, especially with Sugano posting a 6.62 ERA since the start of June.

Bibee still has 10 starts (out of 19) where he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs, and he’s lowered his ERA over May, June, and July to 4.26 after a rough start in April. 

I don’t love the Cleveland offense, as it ranks in the bottom five in MLB in several key categories, but Sugano has allowed three or more runs in six consecutive starts. The righty has not only given up a ton of homers since June 1, but he’s also allowed 49 hits and 12 walks in just 35.1 innings of work.

I’m buying Cleveland to win this game outright on Monday night. 

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-137 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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