Orioles vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 2

The Padres are favored at home on Tuesday.

San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres remain in second place in the NL West, and they’ll aim to catch the Los Angeles Dodgers over the final month of the regular season.

San Diego didn’t do itself any favors on Monday, as it lost its series opener with the Baltimore Orioles to fall 2.5 games back of L.A. in the standings.

The O’s are out of the playoff picture in the American League, but they’re already showing that they can play spoiler to some playoff teams down the stretch of this season.

Tyler Wells will make his return to the rotation for the O’s after he underwent elbow surgery that knocked him out of most of the 2024 and all of the 2025 season to date. He will take on Yu Darvish, who has just a 5.66 ERA so far this season for San Diego.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s action. 

Orioles vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Orioles +1.5 (-150)
• Padres -1.5 (+123)

Moneyline

• Orioles: +141
• Padres: -173

Total

• 8.5 (Over -103/Under -117)

Orioles vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Tyler Wells (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• San Diego: Yu Darvish (3-4, 5.66 ERA)

Orioles vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 2
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA, MASN2
• Orioles record: 62-76
• Padres record: 76-62

Orioles vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+265)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Tatis Jr. could break his power slump on Tuesday: 

Tatis Jr. has gone into a bit of a power slump as of late, hitting just one home run over his last 23 games, but he has seen his OPS tick up over the last two weeks.

During this two-week stretch, Tatis has an on-base percentage of .393 and an OPS of .806 while homering once.

I think he has a solid matchup on Tuesday against Baltimore Orioles starter Tyler Wells, who is making his 2025 debut. In his career, Wells has given up 53 home runs in 95 games (46 starts), and he allowed a homer in each of his three outings in 2024. 

Plus, the Orioles have one of the more beatable bullpens in MLB, posting a 4.62 ERA this season with 71 home runs allowed.

Tatis has hit right-handed pitching well, homering 16 times to go with a .282 batting average and an .850 OPS. 

Orioles vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

This is a tougher matchup to handicap since Wells hasn’t pitched in the majors since early 2024, but I do think there is some value on the total on Tuesday night.

The Orioles and Padres combined for just seven runs in their series opener, and these are two of the best UNDER teams in MLB this season:

• San Diego has hit the UNDER at a rate of 55.2 percent (74-60-4)
• Baltimore has hit the UNDER at a rate of 56.0 percent (75-59-4)

Darvish hasn’t been super sharp in the 2025 season, posting a 5.66 ERA, but out of his 10 starts, five of them have finished with fewer than 8.5 combined runs. On top of that, he has the No. 1 bullpen in MLB backing him up (3.11 ERA this season) against a Baltimore offense that is just 18th in MLB in runs scored. 

Even if Darvish struggles again, I think this game ends up under 8.5 runs. Darvish has allowed more than four runs in just one start, so even his subpar outings won’t completely take the UNDER out of play on Tuesday.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-117 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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