Orioles vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 4

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Baltimore Orioles-Philadelphia Phillies matchup on Monday night.

Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Nick Castellanos is a great prop target on Monday. / Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles were sellers at the trade deadline, and they’re looking to the future over the final two months of the 2025 regular season.

Baltimore is 10 games under .500 this season, and it’s set as a massive underdog on the road on Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies. Many of the best betting sites have the Phillies set as one of the top-five teams in the latest World Series odds, but they have just a half-game lead on the New York Mets in the NL East. 

Jesus Luzardo (4.31 ERA) will get the ball for Philadelphia in a battle of lefties, as youngster Cade Povich (5.15 ERA) is set to return from a hip injury for Baltimore. Povich has not pitched at the big league level since mid-June. 

Can he lead the O’s to an upset win on Monday?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for tonight’s action. 

Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Orioles +1.5 (-121)
• Phillies -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Orioles: +162
• Phillies: -199

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -120)

Orioles vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Cade Povich (2-5, 5.15 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (9-5, 4.31 ERA)

Orioles vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 4
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, MASN
• Orioles record: 51-61
• Phillies record: 63-48

Orioles vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – that Castellanos’ success against left-handed pitching is worth trusting on Monday:

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos has hit well against left-handed pitching in the 2025 season, posting a .289 batting average with four home runs and a .804 OPS.

While Castellanos only has 15 homers in the 2025 season, I love his matchup on Monday against Baltimore Orioles lefty Cade Povich. 

In 13 appearances (12 starts) this season, Povich has given up 10 home runs and posted a 5.15 ERA. He has not pitched in the big leagues since June 15 due to a hip injury, and this is a tough matchup to return to action since he’s facing a vaunted Phillies offense.

Castellanos’ success against left-handed pitching makes him an easy target on Monday. 

Orioles vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

The Phillies have been elite at home in the 2025 season, going 35-20 straight up, and I expect them to take care of business against Povich and company on Monday. 

Povich (5.15 ERA) has struggled already in 2025, and I don’t expect him to pitch too deep into this game after missing nearly two months with a hip issue. So, that means we could see a lot of the Baltimore bullpen (4.64 ERA), which moved on from one of its top relievers in Seranthony Dominguez ahead of the trade deadline.

Philadelphia is just 5-5 in its last 10 games, but I’m buying it with Luzardo on the mound. The lefty has a 4.31 ERA this season, but his expected ERA is much lower (3.63) and he has a FIP of 2.98 in 2025.

Overall, the Phils are 12-10 when Luzardo takes the mound.

With the O’s selling at the deadline, I have a hard time trusting them to win on the road here. At even money, the Phillies are worth a shot on the run line at home. 

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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