Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 19

The Red Sox are favored at home on Tuesday night.

Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have lost back-to-back games and are now third in the AL wild card standings heading into Game 2 against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. 

Tuesday’s matchup could be a high-scoring one, as Tomoyuki Sugano (4.13 ERA) gets the ball for Baltimore against Boston’s Walker Buehler (5.43 ERA).

The O’s are likely out of the playoff mix in the AL, but they could play spoiler for a division rival, as Boston has slipped behind the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners in the standings. Boston does still have a three-game cushion on the Cleveland Guardians for the final spot in the wild card. 

Can the Sox bounce back after a rough 4-6 stretch?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet, and a prediction for the second game of this series between two AL East squads. 

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Orioles +1.5 (-175)
• Red Sox -1.5 (+143)

Moneyline

• Orioles: +118
• Red Sox: -144

Total

• 9.5 (Over -108/Under -113)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Tomoyuki Sugano (10-5, 4.13 ERA)
• Boston: Walker Buehler (7-7, 5.43 ERA)

Orioles vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 19
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, MASN
• Orioles record: 58-67
• Reds Sox record: 68-58

Orioles vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

• Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Alex Bregman is a great bet against the Orioles: 

Boston Red Sox star Alex Bregman is hitting .302 with 16 homers in the 2025 season, and I think he’s in a great spot to add to that homer total on Tuesday.

The Red Sox will play their second straight game against the Baltimore Orioles, and the O’s have Tomoyuki Sugano (4.13 ERA) on the mound. While Sugano’s numbers don’t look terrible on the surface, he ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA, fourth percentile in expected batting average against and the eighth percentile in barrel percentage. 

Overall, he’s allowed 21 home runs in 23 outings this season, making him an easy starter to fade on Tuesday.

Bregman is hitting .333 with a pair of homers over the last two weeks, and 14 of his 16 home runs in 2025 have come against right-handed pitching. He’s worth a look on Tuesday in Game 2 of this AL East battle. 

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Both of these starters have struggled mightily in the 2025 season, as Buehler has an ERA over 5.00 and Sugano ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA and has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.91.

While the O’s have won the majority of Sugano’s starts, I do think this will be a high-scoring affair on Tuesday night.

Buehler enters this game in the fifth percentile in expected ERA (5.69) and the seventh percentile in expected batting average against. He’s also allowed four or more runs in eight outings in 2025.

Boston happens to be one of the better OVER teams in MLB (63-60-3), and I would be shocked if it wasn’t able to put a crooked number up against Sugano, who has one of the worst advanced profiles in the American League. 

The O’s are also 25th in MLB in bullpen ERA, so I wouldn’t expect the offenses to slow down in the later innings either.

Even with the total at 9.5, the OVER is worth a bet on Tuesday night. 

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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