Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman)

Will Aaron Judge go deep on Tuesday?

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Tuesday night. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

A full slate of MLB action calls for a few prop bet picks, so why not take some home run props on Tuesday night?

There are actually 16 games in MLB on Tuesday, as the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will play a doubleheader after Game 2 of Monday’s doubleheader was rained out.

On Monday, Riley Greene of the Detroit Tigers came through in our Daily Dinger column, homering against the Houston Astros to cash a +425 bet. 

Tonight, there are a few other players that I’m looking to bet on to go deep, including New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge. 

Let’s dive into the reasoning behind each of these plays — and their odds at the best betting sites — for Tuesday’s action.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, Aug. 19

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+205)
• Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+390)
• Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+205)

Yankees superstar Aaron Judge has struggled a bit since coming off the injured list, hitting .229 with two homers over the last two weeks (11 games).

However, Judge has a favorable matchup on Tuesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays and righty Shane Baz. So far this season, Baz has a 4.93 ERA, and he’s allowed 21 home runs in 24 appearances.

Judge has faced Baz eight times in his MLB career, going 3-for-8 with one homer and a pair of walks, good for an OPS of 1.250. 

Overall, Judge has dominated against right-handed pitching, hitting .335 with 28 homers. He’s worth a look in this matchup on Tuesday night. 

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+390)

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has been red hot as of late, hitting .560 with three homers and seven runs batted in over the last week (six games), and he’s hit .318 over the last two weeks (11 games).

Lindor’s resurgence is big for the Mets’ playoff chances, and it makes him an intriguing home run target on Monday against the Washington Nationals.

Washington will start righty Jake Irvin in this game, and Lindor has thrived against him in his career, going 6-for-16 (.375) with two doubles, one homer and four runs batted in, posting a 1.063 OPS.

Irvin has been extremely home-run prone this season, allowing 27 in 25 appearances. He also has a shaky 5.14 ERA. 

Lindor is a great bet at this price on Tuesday night.  

Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Boston Red Sox star Alex Bregman is hitting .302 with 16 homers in the 2025 season, and I think he’s in a great spot to add to that homer total on Tuesday.

The Red Sox will play their second straight game against the Baltimore Orioles, and the O’s have Tomoyuki Sugano (4.13 ERA) on the mound. While Sugano’s numbers don’t look terrible on the surface, he ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA, fourth percentile in expected batting average against and the eighth percentile in barrel percentage. 

Overall, he’s allowed 21 home runs in 23 outings this season, making him an easy starter to fade on Tuesday.

Bregman is hitting .333 with a pair of homers over the last two weeks, and 14 of his 16 home runs in 2025 have come against right-handed pitching. He’s worth a look on Tuesday in Game 2 of this AL East battle.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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