Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the San Diego Padres-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup on Aug. 6.

Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte is a great prop target on Wednesday. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres made some major moves at the trade deadline, and they are just three games out of first place in the NL West heading into Wednesday night’s matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona traded away key offensive pieces like Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the deadline, and it has fallen out of the wild card race in the National League. However, these teams have split the first two games of this series, setting up a rubber match on Wednesday night.

San Diego will have the newly-acquired Nestor Cortes on the mound, as he’s fresh off the injured list and set to make his third appearance of the 2025 season.

Arizona will counter with Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 4.91 ERA in nine outings this season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this NL West battle. 

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres -1.5 (+112)
• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-137)

Moneyline

• Padres: -139
• Diamondbacks: +114

Total

• 9.5 (Over -102/Under -119)

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Nestor Cortes (1-1, 9.00 ERA)
• Arizona: Anthony DeSclafani (1-2, 4.91 ERA)

Padres vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 6
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, ARID, SDPA
• Padres record: 63-51
• Diamondbacks record: 54-60 

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

• Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Marte could be a sneaky pick to go deep: 

Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte is one of the few elite hitters left on the roster after Arizona sold off some major pieces at the trade deadline.

The switch hitter has a .287 batting average and 21 homers this season, and he’ll take on San Diego Padres newcomer Nestor Cortes, who is just coming off the 60-day injured list after he was traded by the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline.

Cortes has allowed five homers in two appearances this season, and I’m far from sold on him shutting down this high-powered Arizona attack. The D-Backs still rank in the top 10 in MLB in several key offensive categories.

Marte is 1-for-3 with a double against Cortes in his career, and he has homered five times in 109 at bats against lefties in 2025. 

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

This pitching matchup is a tough one to handicap, as Cortes has not pitched since April due to a flexor strain. 

The lefty was tagged for five home runs in his 2025 debut, but he pitched well in his second start, allowing just one hit across six innings of work.

However, this is a tough matchup against an Arizona offense that is 12th in batting average and 13th in OPS against left-handed pitching and ranks seventh overall in runs scored this season.

The D-Backs have hit the OVER in 50.9 percent of their games this season, as their pitching staff has struggled, ranking 26th in the league in team ERA.

DeSclafani is tough to trust, as he’s allowed four or more runs three times this season despite never pitching more than 4.0 innings in a single game. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.92 ERA (27th in MLB), so I doubt this will be a shutdown performance once the righty exits.

Since Cortes is tough to trust in his first start in several months, I’m going to bet the OVER since Arizona has struggled to play low-scoring games all season. These teams combined for eight runs on Monday and 15 in the Padres’ 10-5 win on Tuesday night. 

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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