Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 25

The Mariners are favored in this matchup between playoff contenders.

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is a great prop target on Aug. 25. / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres momentarily took over the top spot in the NL West, but a loss on Sunday to the Los Angeles Dodgers knocked them back into a tie atop the division.

On Monday, the Padres are looking to take their series opener against the Seattle Mariners, who are just two games back from the Houston Astros in the AL West. 

Bryce Miller (5.87 ERA) will make the start for Seattle against San Diego’s JP Sears, who is making his third appearance as a Padre after coming over in a deadline trade.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this matchup between playoff contenders. 

Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-199)
• Mariners -1.5 (+162)

Moneyline

• Padres: +108
• Mariners: -132

Total

• 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Padres vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: JP Sears (8-10, 4.94 ERA)
• Seattle: Bryce Miller (2-5, 5.87 ERA)

Padres vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 25
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): ROOT Sports NW, SDPA
• Padres record: 74-57
• Mariners record: 70-61

Padres vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+180)

Can Raleigh hit No. 50 tonight? Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why I like the Mariners slugger’s chances against San Diego: 

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh leads all of MLB with 49 home runs, and I’m backing him to hit No. 50 on Monday night.

The Mariners are at home against the San Diego Padres, who are starting struggling lefty JP Sears – a midseason trade addition from the A’s. Sears has faced Raleigh 15 times in his career, and while he’s held the Mariners star to just a 3-for-15 mark against him, Raleigh does have a home run in there.

Sears has given up 25 home runs in 24 appearances this season, including at least one homer allowed in each of his last six starts. 

Meanwhile, Raleigh has thrived against left-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .281 with a 1.030 OPS and 19 homers in just 153 at bats. He’s a great bet to hit No. 50 in this matchup. 

Padres vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Even though the Padres have been one of the best teams in MLB at hitting the UNDER this season, I think the OVER is the bet to make in this series opener.

Seattle is 69-57-5 to the OVER this season, and the pitching matchup between Sears (4.94 ERA, 4.15 expected ERA) and Miller (5.87 ERA, 5.63 expected ERA) screams “high-scoring game” on Monday.

Sears is coming off a strong start for San Diego, allowing just one run in six innings of work, but this is a tougher matchup than facing the San Francisco Giants, as the Mariners are 12th in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching.

In two starts against Seattle this season (both as a member of the A’s), Sears allowed 10 hits, five runs (four earned), two homers, and three walks in 11.0 innings of work. That’s not a bad stat line, but the lefty is hard to trust to turn in a shutdown outing given his season-long numbers.

As for Miller, he ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA and the third percentile in expected batting average against. Seattle is just 4-7 in his starts, and it’s combined for at least eight runs in nine of those outings.

On top of that, Miller has six outings where he’s given up at least four runs. I think the OVER is an easy bet with him on the mound on Monday. 

Pick: OVER 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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