Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 23

The Padres are road favorites with Dylan Cease on the mound.

The San Diego Padres are favored with Dylan Cease on the mound against the Miami Marlins. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres have split the first two games of their early-week series, and they’ll decide things in a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon.

Two veteran right-handers are on the mound in this game, but both starters are having down 2025 seasons. 

Sandy Alcantara (7.14 ERA) has really struggled for the Marlins in his return from Tommy John, while Dylan Cease (4.64 ERA) has not found the groove he did in 2024 with the Padres. Cease’s underlying numbers are much better than Alcantara’s, but with August approaching, the Padres righty is running out of time to right the ship.

Many of the best betting sites have set the Padres as road favorites in this game, but can they hold off a Miami team that continues to inch closer to .500 in the 2025 season?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Wednesday’s series finale. 

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres -1.5 (+118)
• Marlins +1.5 (-144)

Moneyline

• Padres: -148
• Marlins: +122

Total

• 8 (Over -106/Under -115)

Padres vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Dylan Cease (3-9. 4.64 ERA)
• Miami: Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 7.14 ERA)

Padres vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 23
• Time: 12:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: loanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, SDPA
• Padres record: 55-46
• Marlins record: 47-53

Padres vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Sandy Alcantara OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-125)

There have only been five starts (out of 19) this season where Alcantara has allowed two or fewer earned runs, and he’s struggled in July, allowing 15 runs and 22 hits across three starts.

The Marlins righty ranks in the 10th percentile in expected ERA (5.10) in 2025, and his actual ERA (7.14) is even worse.

While San Diego is far from an elite offense (25th in runs scored this season), I expect it to get to Alcantara, who allowed seven hits and six runs in four innings in a start against the Padres in late May. 

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the OVER is the bet to make in this series finale: 

Miami Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and San Diego Padres righty Dylan Cease face off on Wednesday afternoon, and I think oddsmakers have set the total in this game far too low.

Alcantara has really struggled in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, posting a 7.14 ERA while allowing four or more runs in 12 of his 19 starts. Not only that, but Alcantara was rocked by San Diego earlier this season, allowing six runs and seven hits in just four innings of work.

On the Padres’ side, Cease has been far from his usual self in 2025. The Padres righty has a 4.64 ERA, and has allowed three or more earned runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season. While Cease does rank in the 71st percentile in expected ERA, it has yet to translate to actual improvement on the mound, as he’s allowed 10 runs and 17 hits across three starts in July.

Alcantara has an expected ERA of 5.10 (which ranks in the 10th percentile), so I’m expecting another rough outing on Wednesday.

So far this season, the OVER has hit in less than half of the games for these teams, but based on this starting pitching matchup, I think eight runs is a little too low. 

Pick: OVER 8 (-106 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Regardless of the outcome of your wager, DraftKings will add six $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account instantly.